The recent signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda about continued rate hikes have directly caused panic in the crypto world. Veteran trader A-Kai's judgment is straightforward: "This wave will likely cause some pain."



The reason isn't complicated. Over the past 25 years, the 4 trillion USD in carry trade funds accumulated under the low-interest environment of the yen are now rushing back to Japan as the cost of rate hikes skyrockets. As for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies, when funds shrink, they are the first to be hit and sold off.

Looking at recent data makes this clear. As of December 23, BTC spot net outflow was 333 million USD in 24 hours, and ETH also saw an outflow of 81.56 million USD. This isn't a small wave; it's a clear signal of risk aversion and flight to safety.

A-Kai also revisited last year's example: in July, when the yen's interest rate increased, BTC dropped 20% within a week. Now, the market has already priced in this expectation. BTC is fluctuating around the 90,000 USD mark, and those with high leverage are already counting the days, worried about forced liquidations.

But it's not all pessimism. Stablecoins have become a safe haven—USDC saw a net inflow of 168 million USD in 24 hours, and FDUSD also added 7.72 million USD. Plus, some altcoins surged sharply on short-term hot money speculation, with LIGHT soaring over 70% in a single day and SOPH up 40%. It seems there might be opportunities.

However, there's a trap to be aware of. A-Kai specifically warns that these coins have extremely concentrated trading volumes and are highly volatile, with no real value support—it's purely emotional speculation. Assets that rise quickly often fall even faster, so don't get caught holding the bag.

So, how to respond now? A combination of offense and defense:

First, use less leverage. The current crypto market financing rates are not low; don't wait until the rate hike is truly implemented and a deleveraging wave sweeps through.

Second, accumulate stablecoins like USDC with regulatory backing, and keep cash ready for the pullback to buy the dip.

Most importantly, avoid those skyrocketing altcoins. They are likely traps set by major players to offload holdings—don't be blinded by the rapid gains.

What to watch next? Keep an eye on the yen's appreciation. 1 yen is now worth 0.00642 USD. How much the yen appreciates in the future will be a real indicator of capital flow. If you monitor this indicator correctly, you'll know how to act later.
BTC1.34%
ETH1.28%
FDUSD0.04%
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HashRatePhilosophervip
· 2h ago
The yen's interest rate hike this time is indeed fierce. The 4 trillion USD flowing back to Japan—who can withstand that... However, the gains of those altcoins are so outrageous, it feels like just a trap.
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BlockchainFoodievip
· 6h ago
yo, this is basically the crypto equivalent of a poorly sourced ingredient supply chain collapsing under pressure... 4 trillion dollars of carry trade liquidity just waiting to get liquidated? that's not a market correction, that's a full farm-to-fork transparency failure fr fr
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NewPumpamentalsvip
· 6h ago
The yen's interest rate hike, to put it simply, is a signal of capital fleeing. The carry trade is flowing back, and the crypto market is the first to be hit. We really need to be cautious about this wave. --- I really don't understand the sudden surge of things like LIGHT and SOPH. It feels like a trap for the main players to cash out, with prices rising quickly and falling even faster. --- Instead of gambling on those altcoins, it's better to hold stablecoins and wait for a pullback. That's the proper way to play. --- The 90,000 level is really a tough barrier. Brothers using high leverage probably can't sleep now. --- Honestly, just looking at this data shows that big players are fleeing. The outflow of BTC is definitely not a coincidence. --- The appreciation of the yen determines everything. That's the real indicator, so don't guess blindly. --- Stablecoin inflows of 168 million indicate that smart money is already preparing to buy the dip. It all depends on who can hold out until then. --- The wave of deleveraging is truly frightening. I think I'll just hold my coins honestly and avoid digging my own grave. --- All the hot money that speculates on altcoins will eventually get trapped, and retail investors will be the ones losing out. --- With such high financing rates, opening leverage now is really digging your own hole.
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StablecoinArbitrageurvip
· 7h ago
actually, the jpy carry unwind mechanics here are textbook—you're looking at a classic deleveraging cascade with massive order book imbalance. those altcoin pumps? literally just noise in the liquidity pool, negative alpha wrapped in hopium.
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