#美联储降息政策 A 25 basis point rate cut failed to sustain the rally in risk assets, and the underlying logic behind this is worth pondering. The Fed's hawkish guidance and the indication of only one rate cut next year directly dampened market sentiment — this is not just a policy shift but a carefully crafted signal management.

Looking at the data is the hard truth. Institutions have net accumulated 42,565 Bitcoins since December, and their willingness to hold remains strong; but retail investors' continued divestment suppresses the rally, and this structural divergence explains a lot. More painfully, Oracle's earnings report — declining revenue from traditional software and weak new license sales — hits the pain point of the AI infrastructure investment frenzy. The gap between debt-driven expenditure commitments and actual cash flow is evident, prompting the market to reassess the valuation of risk assets.

Bitcoin is oscillating around 90,000, and the Christmas rally is likely to fall short. From a follow-trader perspective, this time window is a perfect testing ground for traders' resilience. Those who can maintain discipline and stick to stop-losses amid macro uncertainties are the ones worth paying attention to in the long term. Short-term rebounds are easy, but controlling risk amid volatility is the real skill. The logic of chasing highs now doesn't hold, and instead, attention should be on seasoned traders who understand how to reduce leverage and adjust positions.