#美联储降息政策 The Fed's rate cut tonight is a certainty, with a CME probability of 87.6%, but what truly warrants attention is not the 25bp cut itself, but the underlying liquidity signals.

The balance sheet expansion expectations are surfacing—Bank of America predicts that the Federal Reserve will purchase short-term government bonds at an average monthly rate of $45 billion starting from January. This suggests the market may see a new round of liquidity injection, and the expectations for on-chain funding are clearly being driven.

Even more interesting is the political division within the central bank. Among the 12 FOMC voting members, 5 oppose further rate cuts, while 3 support them. Such a level of disagreement has only occurred nine times since 1990. In other words, Powell is facing unprecedented pressure—Trump has publicly criticized the small size of the rate cut, while hawkish officials are stepping on the brakes.

This policy uncertainty often prompts funds to seek risk assets for safe-haven. Observing whale movements and large contract inflows over the past 24 hours, it’s evident that funds are already positioning in advance. The key is to judge the timing window for this liquidity injection—if the balance sheet expansion is confirmed, January could become a critical operational window.

Politicized monetary policy is rewriting market expectations, and on-chain data will reflect this shift earlier.