Gold hits $10,000? Unveiling the logic behind the new round of gold price forecasts

2025 is a year that will go down in history for the gold market. The prices of this precious metal have increased by nearly 70% since the beginning of the year, marking the strongest annual performance since the oil crisis of 1979.

Gold spot prices have surpassed $4,500 per ounce in December, continuously setting new records. Many Wall Street institutions are no longer debating whether gold will pull back but are instead discussing when it will break through $5,000 and even $10,000.

01 Gold Bull Market: Behind the Historic Performance

The performance of gold in 2025 has been phenomenal. Recently, spot gold prices broke through $4,500 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 70%, making it the most robust year since 1979.

Compared to many traditional investment assets, gold’s returns are remarkable. From a global asset allocation perspective, the total market value of gold has exceeded $31 trillion, several times the market cap of many tech giants.

In its latest report, State Street Global Advisors pointed out that there is a 75% chance that gold prices will break through $4,000 in the current quarter or early 2026, emphasizing that $3,500 seems to have become a new support level.

02 Multiple Drivers: The Core Forces Behind Gold Price Rise

The gold market is driven by multiple factors rather than a single one. The movement of the US dollar, central bank demand, and macroeconomic environment collectively shape this gold bull market.

The US dollar index is experiencing its steepest annual decline since the 1970s, directly boosting gold’s attractiveness. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts further reinforce this trend.

Global central banks are steadily increasing their gold purchases, while retail demand in China continues to grow beyond expectations. These two unique factors provide solid support for gold prices.

Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with the US imposing blockades on Venezuelan oil tankers and possibly taking military action, further intensifying market risk aversion.

03 Institutional Forecasts: From $5,000 to $10,000 in Timeline

Wall Street institutions have made bold predictions about the future of gold. JPMorgan expects the average price of gold to reach $5,055 by Q4 2026, and further rise to $5,400 by the end of 2027.

JPMorgan noted that if 0.5% of offshore dollar assets are reallocated to gold, the resulting new demand could push gold prices to $6,000.

Institutions like Bank of America and Metals Focus also agree that gold could reach $5,000 in 2026. These forecasts reflect a market consensus on a structural gold bull trend.

04 Ardani’s Universal Gold Prediction: Roaring 2020s Framework

Among many forecasts, veteran Wall Street strategist Ed Ardani’s view is particularly notable. He explicitly predicts that by the end of 2029, gold will reach $10,000 per ounce.

Ardani’s forecast is based on his “Roaring 2020s” macro framework. He believes that the current economic and market prosperity resembles that of the 1920s, and gold will transition in the coming years from a purely defensive asset to a core holding with growth attributes.

Historical data supports this optimistic outlook: the past 20 years have seen a cumulative gold return of about 761%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 673%. Gold has outperformed the US stock market for 25 consecutive years.

05 Variables in Digital Assets: Potential Impact of Quantum Computing

The development of quantum computing technology has brought unexpected support to the gold market. Although quantum computing is still in its early stages, some experts warn it could pose a threat to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Amit Mehra, partner at venture capital firm Borderless Capital, pointed out that quantum computing might challenge Bitcoin and other proof-of-work cryptocurrencies in the future.

Charles Edwards, founder of digital asset fund Carpriole, directly stated: “If Bitcoin does not address quantum issues within the next year, gold will forever outperform it.”

06 Market Comparison: Unique Advantages and Potential of Gold

Compared to other assets, gold demonstrates unique advantages. Relative to cash, gold prices have reached their highest levels since the 1960s, surpassing the peak of 1980.

Gold relative to US Treasuries is also at its highest since the late 1980s. However, measured by the gold/S&P 500 ratio, the current level is still about 50% below the 1980 peak.

This means that relative to the stock market, gold still has significant upside potential. The overall strength of the precious metals sector is not limited to gold; silver, closely related, has risen over 40% in the past month.

07 Investor Composition: New Buyers Entering and Allocation Changes

The gold market is undergoing structural changes. The proportion of investors holding gold in their total assets has increased from 1.5% before 2022 to 2.8%.

In addition to traditional central banks and institutional investors, new buyers such as stablecoin issuers Tether and some corporate finance departments are also entering the gold market.

Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, purchased about 26 tons of gold in Q3, five times the amount disclosed by the Chinese central bank during the same period.

08 Future Outlook: Risk Management and Balanced Allocation

Although most institutions remain bullish on gold, risk management remains essential. The Bank for International Settlements warned that the phenomenon of gold prices rising sharply alongside stock prices is, at least for half a century, unprecedented.

This has sparked discussions about whether there are bubbles in these two asset classes. Some gold buying is essentially a hedge against potential sharp corrections in the stock market, but it also poses a potential risk to gold prices.

If the stock market crashes sharply, investors may be forced to sell safe-haven assets including gold to replenish liquidity. Therefore, balanced allocation remains key to investing.

When gold prices stabilize above $4,500, silver has also hit a new record high of $72.59. The overall strength of the precious metals sector continues.

On the Gate platform, investors are already reassessing their asset allocations. Gold relative to cash and bonds is at a high level, but its ratio to stocks remains well below the 1980 peak.

In this era of increasing uncertainty, “gold is gradually evolving from a traditional safe-haven asset to a core long-term asset in global asset allocation.” On the path from $4,500 to $10,000, each key level could become the starting point of a new wave of market movement.