Based on multiple factors such as market closure in international markets, a deep analysis of the current market trend has been conducted, leading to four core judgments:

First, the main index will still fluctuate widely at high levels. Second, the downward adjustment time window will be further delayed. Third, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band is very difficult—unless the trading volume in the first 30 minutes reaches over 270 billion yuan or in the first 60 minutes over 380 billion yuan, even if the index surpasses the upper band, it is advisable to reduce positions and take profits at high points. Currently, the upper band has risen to around 3954 points due to the increase, which is indeed a good place to lighten positions. Fourth, when the market rises, individual stocks usually do not perform as strongly as the previous day. The morning market basically verified this logic.

Specifically, this morning, after a low open, the index steadily rose, reaching a high of 3956 points before falling back—still constrained by the upper Bollinger Band. The midday close was a small positive candle, with a transaction volume of 487.4 billion yuan, an increase of 21.5 billion yuan from yesterday, but this incremental volume is far from enough to effectively break through the upper band. The pattern of more stocks rising than falling continues.

What is the current issue? Although trading volume has slightly increased, it is far from the level needed for a breakout. The pressure of the upper band is evident, and the next steps are twofold: either gradually rise along the upper band line or get stuck at the upper band without movement. In any case, this position still requires caution.