This morning's rally was indeed fierce, with BTC soaring from 87,000 to 89,000 in one go, igniting instant market enthusiasm. But the real story is still to come—the epic options expiration at 4 PM is the true variable. With a nominal value of $23.7 billion weighing on this moment, whales are fighting fiercely, bulls and bears are battling back and forth. Will it go up or down? It’s worth a careful analysis.

First, let’s look at the market sentiment. When BTC surged 3% in the early session, a whale with 40x leverage was immediately liquidated, with a single position爆仓 of 160 BTC, resulting in a total loss of over $17.6 million. What does this indicate? Market sentiment has become highly polarized, and the short positions are so fragile that they could collapse at any moment.

In the $23.7 billion options expiration, the most critical strike price is $96,000—this is the zone where the market makers maximize their profits. But interestingly, according to historical patterns, this price level usually isn’t visible before expiration. The market tends to oscillate repeatedly below this pain point, only breaking through quickly after the event. Once gamma hedging is triggered, volatility will suddenly spike, and the market could accelerate sharply.

Overall, before 4 PM, the market may continue to absorb orders within a narrow range, with volatility peaking at the moment of expiration. Based on past experience, a "dip first, then rally" scenario is quite possible. The key is to confirm the direction at the right moment and avoid repeatedly stopping out during oscillations.