#美联储回购协议计划 Japan's New Policy Implementation Brings Dual Opportunities and Risks to the Crypto Market

Japan's record-breaking FY2026 budget of 122.3 trillion yen, alongside the Financial Services Agency's regulatory framework overhaul, sends mixed signals to the crypto ecosystem.

The most immediate positive impact comes from the stablecoin sector. Major banks like Mizuho and Mitsubishi UFJ have launched yen stablecoin tests integrated into payment scenarios used by 300,000 enterprises—this is not a small-scale effort but a real bridge connecting crypto assets with traditional settlement systems. Once the pilot programs are officially expanded, the B2B application space will be fully activated. Meanwhile, the budget's allocation for technological innovation also provides ample resources for blockchain R&D.

However, there are several concerns. Japan's government debt ratio exceeding 260% has become the norm, and the ongoing pressure from large-scale new bond issuance could accelerate the depreciation of the yen—this poses a challenge to the attractiveness of yen-denominated crypto assets.

Regulatory changes also need to be clearly understood. Starting from FY2026, crypto assets will officially be classified as "financial commodities" under the framework of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. On the tax front, there has been some easing—reducing the top progressive tax rate from 55% to a fixed 20%, lowering the entry cost for institutions. But the trade-off is tighter regulation of innovative activities like crypto lending and IEOs, with platforms required to meet strict standards such as asset segregation and cold wallet custody.

In the short term, the stablecoin pilot programs combined with tax reforms could attract a wave of new capital. However, yen volatility and uncertainties before the full implementation of regulatory details are likely to cause market turbulence. In the long run, Japan's dual-track approach of "sandbox innovation with clear regulation" is serving as a model for the global crypto ecosystem—this experimental outcome warrants ongoing observation.