TRUMP Token's New Year Meme Rally Stalls as Canary Capital Pursues ETF Approval Amid SEC Headwinds

The Official Trump (TRUMP) meme coin, which gained momentum following its launch ahead of the presidential term, has hit significant headwinds. Trading at $8.40, the token has plummeted 69% from its January 19 peak of $46.50, now sitting at the 55th position by market capitalization—a stark reminder of meme coin volatility in the market.

Canary Capital’s recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a spot ETF for TRUMP represents a bold attempt to legitimize the once-surging digital asset. The firm aims to directly hold the token and provide institutional access to retail investors. However, industry experts remain skeptical about the likelihood of approval.

The path to SEC clearance presents formidable obstacles. Canary must navigate a rigorous documentation process that typically spans close to a year. A critical requirement stands out: the ETF must have at least six months of established futures markets available—a prerequisite that TRUMP futures currently fail to meet. This regulatory hurdle could prove insurmountable for near-term approval prospects.

Meanwhile, REX Shares has thrown its hat into the ring with a competing application to track TRUMP, opting for the 40 Act fund structure as an alternative route. REX’s leadership has cautioned other ETF issuers about the inherent risks of backing cryptocurrencies outside the top 20, warning that market instability increases significantly in that tier. With Canary establishing its legal infrastructure only in August, the competitive pressure adds another layer of complexity to an already uncertain regulatory landscape.