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Recent trading data from a certain prediction market has revealed an interesting phenomenon. Among over 1.7 million participating addresses, only about 30% are actually profitable. In other words, a full 70% of traders are already losing money.
What's even more heartbreaking is that within the 30% who are profitable, most are earning only modest amounts—mainly in the $0-$1,000 range. Want to rank in the top 4.9% of profit earners? You need to make at least over $1,000.
And here comes the most striking data: less than 0.04% of the top addresses have easily captured over 70% of the realized profits in the entire market. This winner-takes-all pattern is vividly reflected in the prediction market. In simple terms, the vast majority of retail investors are essentially working for the top addresses.
The top 0.04% takes 70% of the profits—that's the old capital trick. Retail investors are always on the losing side.
It seems this prediction market is just a different flavor of the same old story; you still have to rely on information asymmetry and capital advantage to dominate.