The Federal Reserve's 2025 Year-End Meeting Minutes will be released at 3:00 AM Beijing time on January 3rd. This document could become a key turning point for the short-term crypto market.

Currently, market disagreements are unprecedentedly intense. Inside the Federal Reserve, the biggest policy split in 37 years has emerged regarding interest rate policy: 12 officials advocate for holding steady and cutting rates, while 7 hawkish officials firmly oppose rate cuts. This rare policy rift reflects deep-seated contradictions between sticky inflation and employment data.

From the perspective of interest rate anchoring, the neutral rate range of 3.50%-3.75% has become a certainty. This significantly raises the threshold for rate cuts—in the context of a new chair taking office and a hawkish faction holding sway, rate cuts in the near term are highly unlikely. Market expectations show only a 47% chance of a rate cut by March 2026, with the actual easing window not opening until after June. Meanwhile, a $40 billion implicit balance sheet expansion is underway, which on the surface creates a liquidity illusion but in reality exerts a dual squeeze on the market.

The impact on crypto assets presents two extreme scenarios. If hawkish policies dominate, short-term US dollar yields will continue to attract capital, with high-beta assets bearing the brunt. BTC could dip below $70,000, and ETH might fall to around $2,400, triggering a wave of leveraged liquidations. However, if the minutes mention signals of employment weakness, market expectations for rate cuts could resurface, giving BTC a chance to surge to the $92,000-$98,000 range, with ETH targeting around $3,600.

The key lies in the subtle differences in policy language and the specific presentation of the balance sheet expansion details. This is not just about interest rates but a re-pricing of overall liquidity expectations. Volatility will spike significantly in the short term, and the battle between bulls and bears will be exceptionally fierce.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, the trigger for the 2026 easing cycle is already in sight—it's only a matter of time. Tonight’s minutes will determine whether we continue to drift in a bear market or usher in a new wave of risk appetite.