During this end-of-year period, the trading market appears particularly calm. Bitcoin fluctuates repeatedly between 87k and 89k, with trading volume as thin as streets after a holiday, where even slightly sizable orders can cause significant price swings.

A few days ago, during the holiday, a lesser-known trading pair on a major exchange suddenly plunged to 24k, which certainly startled many. However, a closer look reveals that this was not a systemic risk at all, but simply a false alarm caused by holiday traders being scarce and insufficient order book depth. Mainstream trading pairs have maintained stable prices above 87k.

The real situation is this—at year-end, institutions are reducing risk exposure, and with the recent expiration of $2.3 billion in options, a large number of leveraged positions have been liquidated, causing open interest to drop by tens of billions of dollars. This directly led to the price being trapped in a narrow range, with little momentum to break out.

Interestingly, the global liquidity environment is actually easing; M2 has hit new highs, but short-term funds are more inclined to flow into traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Bitcoin is temporarily behaving like a high-volatility risk asset, fluctuating with macroeconomic trends.

This liquidity crunch does not mean a bear market is coming; it’s simply the market digesting this year's gains. Once traders return after New Year’s, liquidity reactivates, and combined with ETF capital flows and policy developments, a clearer picture of the future trend will emerge. The most prudent approach now is to stay observant and avoid rushing to increase bets.