【Ethereum Trapped in a Tense Tug-of-War】

There’s a phrase circulating in the community lately that hits a bit hard—Ethereum has been grinding in a super long cycle, and time is forcing it to make a choice.

Many people got to know this industry through Ethereum. Smart contracts, DeFi, Web3, Layer2… these concepts are almost all branded with Ethereum. During the 2021 bull run, "Ethereum breaks $10,000" even became a belief-level consensus. But what’s the reality? No sustained main rally, nor a complete collapse—just sideways trading for several years.

From a technical perspective, it’s even more brutal: Ethereum is trapped in a "super large triangle." Every time it breaks support, it’s quickly pulled back; every time it breaks resistance, it ends in a false breakout. The message behind this is simple—neither bulls nor bears are winning; they’re just exhausting each other’s patience.

But here’s the key point: time is running out.

The more the structure converges, the more extreme the future trend will be. It won’t be a gentle breakout, but an emotional-level decision. At this moment, two directions must be seriously considered:

**Upside Breakout Scenario:** If main capital flows back in, narratives like DeFi, Layer2, re-staking, RWA, etc., could be re-priced by the market. Once triggered, the rebound could be quite strong.

**Downside Breakdown Scenario:** This isn’t just a matter of a few percentage points; it’s about Ethereum’s "core narrative" being re-evaluated by the market. The judgment of "perpetual number two" might be called into question.

Where is Ethereum now? It’s neither in a breakout phase nor in a complete bear market; it’s in the most torturous "decision phase." This stage often washes out chips easily and can shake confidence. But history repeatedly proves: the real big trend often emerges when everyone starts asking, "Is it done for?"

Around 2026, will Ethereum choose upward or downward? The answer could redefine the entire crypto market landscape.