The recent discourse in the crypto market has been torn apart by two opposing forces. One claims that BTC is about to break through the $90,000 mark, while the other issues frequent warnings that it may retrace to $40,000 in January. Even more bizarrely, small coins like PEPE are still surging wildly, leading many investors to believe that "when major coins fall, I can turn around with small coins."

But reality is often harsh. This phenomenon actually reflects a strategic shift of institutional funds — in anticipation of a needed correction for BTC, large institutions are withdrawing from mainstream coins in advance, while scattered retail funds flood into small coin markets. On the surface, it appears to be liquidity abundance; fundamentally, it’s a typical case of "funds avoiding the heavy and seeking the light." Those small coins like PEPE, which can surge 50% in a day or even double, are often signals of retail funds harvesting retail investors, rather than opportunities for "value discovery."

Many dismiss the four-year cycle theory of the crypto market, believing that patterns can always be broken. But the reason it’s called a cycle is precisely because of its strong regularity. Looking back to 2021, there were also many voices claiming BTC would break through $100,000 or even higher. But what was the final result? A drop of over 60% within just a few months. The current macro environment is even more complex than in 2021 — with slowing global economic growth, tighter liquidity, and limited policy space. In this context, historical lessons become especially important.

The greatest risk in the crypto market is often hidden in the most optimistic moments. The frenzy of small coins has always been a precursor to major coins’ adjustments. This is not a personal opinion, but a pattern repeatedly validated by the market.