The upside potential of ZEC is not as large as imagined. From a hardware cost perspective, the issue is quite clear—Z15 miners generate nearly 200 yuan in daily output, and this return clearly cannot support the current price. Without capital injection, based on electronic waste prices, these old models of miners simply cannot sell for more than 30 yuan.

Yet, the market currently requires 30,000 yuan to buy one, creating an enormous arbitrage opportunity. Investing 300,000 yuan in a new miner yields only about 3,000 yuan in daily output, which is far from covering the costs. This is not the first time—back in 2022, the KAS market was similar; buying a KA3 miner for 300,000 yuan, its price was halved within a month, and now its scrap value is only around 100 yuan.

ZEC is very likely to follow the same path. Based on the true economic effects of mining, a reasonable price for this coin should be around 40 USD. From now until that level, the downside potential is at least 14 times. Those shorting ZEC need to hold their positions and not be scared out by fluctuations. As long as they don’t get liquidated, in a few months, this coin will eventually return to its fundamental value.