Will the Chicago PMI in December rebound? Essentially, it depends on these few competitors "wrestling"—on one side, the AI investment boom continuously injecting momentum; on the other, trade barriers and labor shortages squeezing businesses to the limit. U.S. manufacturing is now caught in this gap, and the future remains uncertain.

Let's start with the positive side. How strong is the wave of the AI boom? Tech giants like Intel and AMD are racing to expand production domestically, with semiconductor and electronic component orders flooding in, activating the entire industry chain. This is not just a numbers game—statistics show that 79% of manufacturing companies have given positive feedback on current business conditions, and business confidence is recovering. This is real heat.

More importantly, U.S. manufacturing has spent over two years optimizing its supply chain. Diversified procurement and pre-stocking have become standard practices, and the previous bottleneck issues are gradually easing. Just this alone is enough to boost the December PMI data.

But here’s the problem. How harsh is the trade protectionist knife? The U.S. directly imposes a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum. What’s the result? Raw material costs soar. Boston Consulting Group’s figures show that just the steel and aluminum tariffs have increased U.S. import costs by $22 billion, with downstream product costs adding another $29 billion. How is this calculated? Ultimately, it has to be passed on to businesses.

Labor shortages hit even harder. U.S. manufacturing currently faces a shortage of 400,000 jobs. Ford even offers an annual salary of $120,000—yet skilled workers remain "hard to find." Money alone can't fully solve this problem; if a link in the industrial chain gets stuck, the entire line cannot move.

Adding to the challenge, traditional pillar industries like automobile manufacturing are still struggling amid supply chain disruptions. The overall situation can be described as significant downside pressure. Can the new momentum from AI fully offset the cost pressures, labor shortages, and trade frictions? That’s the key to whether December’s PMI data can meet expectations.

What does this mean for the crypto market? Manufacturing data influences the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction, which in turn affects liquidity and risk asset valuations. If PMI exceeds expectations, the Fed might be more cautious; if it falls short, expectations for rate cuts will heat up again. These fluctuations will directly impact the price trajectories of risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The upcoming weeks’ economic data are worth close attention.