Remember the crazy early morning in 2021? Staying up at 3 a.m. to watch the K-line, feeling so exhilarated when BTC rose from 60,000 to 69,000, and then so devastated when it plunged straight down. These days, opening the market app, I feel a bit dazed—like the "show" from 2021 is replaying, with the same cycle points, similar capital layouts, and the market’s "bullish to death" atmosphere almost unchanged. If you're still following the hype and shouting "End of year 90,000" with influencers, this article might slap you in the face. But honestly, instead of waiting to regret after losses, it’s better to see these signals clearly now.

Let’s look at the data first. BTC’s four-year cycle has long been no secret—halving and macro cycles have been repeatedly validated in history. After the 2017 halving, the price surged from below 10,000 to break 20,000, then sharply crashed to around 3,000; the story in 2021 was similar, with the halving pushing the price from 40,000 to a high of 69,000, before falling to 15,000. It’s been over two years since the last halving, and according to the pattern, this should be a period of accumulation and correction, and the current candlestick pattern just confirms this.

The most noteworthy thing is the change in capital flow. I’ve analyzed data from the past three months and found something interesting—top institutions are quietly reducing their positions. Grayscale, a major player, has seen its BTC holdings shrink by about 12,000 coins in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, retail investors are still going all-in, with long positions in the futures market soaring to 68%. Does this scene sound familiar? Retail taking the hit, institutions retreating, bubbles inflating to the max—this routine before the 2021 crash is happening again.

Technical indicators are also speaking. The RSI has entered overbought territory, and although MACD hasn’t fully weakened yet, the trend is on the verge of reversing. Before every historical high, it’s always like this—everyone is celebrating, as if the word "risk" doesn’t exist.

Honestly, I’m not here to call a bear market. But staying alert at this stage is always better than blindly following the crowd. The profits that should be made are already in hand, and the take-profit levels need to be carefully considered. There will always be opportunities in the market, but only if your principal is protected enough to wait for the next round.