#数字资产市场动态 Lighter TGE is imminent, but interesting signals are coming from the on-chain data.

According to Polymarket's prediction market data, a large holder recently spent $126,000 to buy Yes shares for the "December 31st Airdrop." Currently, this order is already showing a loss of over $10,000. Even more surreal, the same wallet previously lost $4,861 in the prediction for the "December 29th Airdrop."

It seems this guy is really racing against time.

What's more intriguing is that, through on-chain tracking of wallet addresses, these betting accounts show certain common features with early deposit addresses of the Lighter team—similar exchange deposit and withdrawal patterns. What does this imply? Perhaps these orders are backed by insiders, signaling something through the prediction market.

This kind of operation is not unfamiliar. Recently, many projects have been manipulating market expectations on Polymarket by placing bets to boost market sentiment or create hype. But there's a real issue: even if insiders are betting, it doesn't necessarily mean their predictions are accurate. Ultimately, the market depends on whether the product can succeed.

Lighter's technical approach itself is worth noting—using ZK circuits to verify matching and settlement logic, which is an innovative idea in perpetual DEXs. However, the problem is that established players like dYdX and GMX have already dominated the market. For Lighter to break through, it needs more than just technical innovation—it needs to bring something else to the table. This requires time for validation; simply looking at on-chain data and gambling heavily won't give the full picture.

The market will soon find out when the airdrop will happen.