Why Joby Aviation (JOBY) Could Deliver 10x Returns for Early Believers

Joby Aviation has underperformed since going public four years ago through a SPAC merger at $10.62 per share. Today it trades around $13, disappointing investors who anticipated rapid growth. However, beneath the surface lies a company positioned to dominate an emerging market worth potentially trillions of dollars.

The Reality Behind the Delays

The company’s pre-merger projections were overly ambitious. It forecasted $131 million in 2024 revenue, but generated only $136,000 from a U.S. Air Force contract while burning $608 million. This miss represents classic SPAC hubris—promising the moon, delivering a pebble.

Yet this setback shouldn’t blind investors to what’s actually happening. Joby secured backing from Toyota and Delta Air Lines, acquired Uber’s aerial mobility division in 2020, and recently absorbed Blade’s helicopter service in August 2025. These moves weren’t accidents. They signal serious infrastructure being built for commercial operations.

The Technology Advantage That Matters

Joby’s S4 aircraft carries four passengers plus a pilot, travels 150 miles per charge at 200 mph maximum speed. Its hydrogen-powered variant extends range to 750 miles with faster charging.

Compare this to Archer Aviation’s Midnight: same passenger capacity, but only 100-mile range at 150 mph. The difference? Joby uses tilt-rotor technology that switches between lift and cruise modes, making the aircraft lighter and more efficient. Archer’s dual-propeller design carries excess weight and energy waste.

Joby has delivered two aircraft under its $131 million DOD contract, plus test flights across the UAE, South Korea, and Japan. It’s not theoretical—the hardware is flying now.

Uber’s Backing Changes the Game

When Uber acquired Elevate in 2020, it planted a flag in urban air mobility. Uber’s CEO and leadership team invested credibility into this space. That Uber now integrates Joby’s S4 flights into its main app signals genuine commercial intent, not venture gambling. Delta partnering to launch first routes in New York and Los Angeles further validates the business model.

The Real Growth Timeline

Analysts anticipate FAA full approval for U.S. commercial flights in 2026—the same year Joby plans to launch Dubai operations. Forecast revenue projections show $40 million in 2025, $113 million in 2026, and $207 million in 2027.

At $12.7 billion market cap, the stock trades at 61x 2027 sales. Expensive? Yes. Unreasonable? Consider what comes next.

Eve Air Mobility’s Global Market Outlook estimates 30,000 eVTOLs carrying three billion passengers annually by 2045. If traditional helicopters gradually transition to electric vertical takeoff aircraft, Joby capturing just a third of the market selling 10,000 aircraft yearly would generate $13 billion annual revenue (at ~$1.3 million per aircraft).

Even if aircraft prices compress to $1 million as production scales, $10 billion in annual revenue becomes achievable. At a modest 13x sales multiple, that’s a $130 billion market cap—roughly 10x current levels.

The Bet You’re Actually Making

Joby isn’t a proven business today. It’s a bet on whether eVTOL aircraft become real transportation infrastructure within two decades rather than remaining a curiosity.

The technology works. The regulatory pathway exists. The commercial partners are committed. The only question is execution speed and market adoption.

For investors with multi-year time horizons and risk tolerance for setbacks, Joby represents asymmetric upside. The downside is limited at current valuations; the upside could be transformational if the eVTOL market materializes as predicted.