#预测市场 The hype around prediction markets is indeed quite interesting. Kalshi's research data is right there—within 25 months, the accuracy of inflation forecasts has outperformed the Wall Street consensus by 40%, and during volatile periods, it even led by 67%. These are not marketing figures; they are proof of the real existence of "collective intelligence."

My feeling is that these platforms are becoming a new trading mechanism with a solid underlying logic: numerous traders driven by economic incentives collectively making decisions, which naturally makes them more sensitive than individual experts. Coinbase's acquisition of The Clearing Company and Kalshi's launch on the BSC ecosystem are all signals—prediction markets moving from niche to institutionalized is no longer a question of if, but when.

From a copy-trading perspective, what does this mean? It indicates that a new wave of traders is accumulating real track records on these platforms. Their advantages include: quick information response, clear risk preferences, and transparent data. If you're looking for experts who can "sense subtle market changes," trading records on prediction market platforms are worth examining.

But don't be overly optimistic. Making money in prediction markets isn't easy; it requires a genuine understanding of fundamentals, not just following technical trends. When choosing whom to copy, my advice is to benchmark and assess—look at this person's historical accuracy in prediction markets. Would they also be able to replicate their success in traditional trading? Only those who can replicate their results are worth following long-term.