Gold price trends soar over ten years, can gold double again?

In the third quarter of 2025, international spot gold has already repeatedly hit new all-time highs. From the beginning of the year at $2,690 per ounce, it surged to break through the $4,300 mark in October, an increase of over 56%. Behind this rally reflects profound changes in the global economic landscape—central banks increasing their holdings, geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar—these factors are reshaping the investment value of gold.

But the question is: over the past 50 years, gold prices have increased by 120 times. Will such a miracle repeat in the next 50 years? If you want to invest in gold now, how should you judge?

Gold, is it really a good investment?

Let’s look at the data. Since the gold price was decoupled from the dollar in 1971, gold has increased by 120 times. During the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose from 900 points to 46,000 points, an increase of about 51 times. At first glance, gold outperformed, but this calculation has a fatal flaw—gold prices are not always smooth.

In the 20 years from 1980 to 2000, gold prices hovered around $200–$300, with no significant gains. If you invested in gold during that period and held long-term, it was essentially a waste of 20 years of youth. That’s why gold is suitable for swing trading, not for simple, long-term holding without action.

Compared to the returns over the past 30 years, stocks actually performed better, followed by gold, with bonds at the bottom. But this doesn’t mean gold is useless—key is to catch the trend. Gold usually follows a pattern: strong bull → sharp correction → stabilization → restart of the bull. Being able to go long during bull markets or short during sharp declines can yield returns far exceeding stocks and bonds.

The story behind the ten-year gold rally

To understand gold price movements, we must review four major waves of upward trends in history:

First wave (1970–1975): from $35 to $183

After the dollar was decoupled from gold, confidence in the dollar waned, and people flocked to gold as a safe haven. Coupled with the oil crisis, the US increased money supply to buy energy, further pushing up gold prices. But as the oil crisis eased, people found the dollar still useful, and gold prices fell back to around $100.

Second wave (1976–1980): from $104 to $850

The second Middle East oil crisis, the Iran hostage crisis, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan caused geopolitical turmoil, triggering global recession and high inflation. Gold was wildly speculated upon, but after the oil crisis eased and the Soviet Union disintegrated, prices quickly retreated. Over the next 20 years, gold fluctuated mainly between $200 and $300.

Third wave (2001–2011): from $260 to $1921

After 9/11, the US launched a long-term anti-terror war, with huge military spending leading to continuous rate cuts and debt issuance. Low interest rates inflated housing prices, culminating in the 2008 financial crisis. The US launched massive QE to rescue the economy, ushering in a decade-long bull market for gold. During the European debt crisis in 2011, gold reached a peak of $1921 per ounce.

Fourth wave (2015–present): from $1060 to over $4300

Japan and Europe implemented negative interest rates, global de-dollarization accelerated, the US launched aggressive QE again, the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts… these factors kept gold prices stable above $2000. Starting in 2024, gold’s rally accelerated, with annual gains exceeding 104%. Entering 2025, escalating Middle East tensions, trade war fears, a weakening dollar, and stock market volatility—multiple factors resonated, continuously rewriting history.

Five ways to invest in gold

If you want to participate in the gold market, there are five main methods:

1. Physical gold: Buy gold bars directly, convenient for asset concealment, can also be worn as jewelry. Disadvantages are inconvenient trading.

2. Gold certificates: Bank-issued gold custody certificates, portable but with high fees and large spreads, suitable for long-term investment.

3. Gold ETFs: Much more liquid than certificates, flexible trading. But management fees are charged by the issuer, and during non-volatility periods, value may slowly decline.

4. Gold futures/CFD contracts: Leverage tools, can go long or short. CFDs are especially flexible, with high capital efficiency, suitable for short-term swing trading. Minimum deposit as low as $50, smallest trading lot 0.01 lots, accessible to small investors.

5. Gold stock funds: Buying stocks of gold mining companies or gold funds, indirectly participating in gold appreciation.

Among these, for those aiming to capture short-term swings, gold CFDs are most suitable. Support for two-way trading, maximum leverage 1:100, T+0 mechanism allowing instant entry and exit, execution speed in milliseconds. Real-time charts, economic calendar, expert forecasts all available, with risk control tools like stop profit and stop loss.

How to choose between gold, stocks, and bonds?

The income sources of these three assets are entirely different:

• Gold gains come from price differences, no interest, key is timing of entry and exit
• Bonds yield from interest payments, requiring continuous growth of principal, aligned with central bank policies
• Stocks profit from corporate growth, suitable for long-term holding of selected companies

In terms of difficulty, bonds are the simplest, gold is next, stocks are the most challenging.

The investment logic is clear: choose stocks during economic growth, allocate to gold during recessions. When the economy is booming, corporate profits are optimistic, stocks attract capital, gold and bonds are relatively dull. During downturns, stocks are sold off, and gold’s hedging function along with bonds’ fixed income become highly attractive.

The most prudent approach is to allocate assets across stocks, bonds, and gold according to personal risk tolerance. This way, when one asset declines, others can hedge risks. In the face of unpredictable black swan events like the Russia-Ukraine war or inflation-driven rate hikes, diversification becomes especially important.

What does the future hold for gold prices?

Gold is fundamentally a natural resource, with extraction costs increasing over time. This means that even after a bull market ends and prices correct, each low point will gradually be higher. In other words, gold will not become worthless but will build a bottom at high levels and then restart its upward trend.

The past 50 years of gold price movements prove that, if you seize the right timing to enter and exit, gold’s returns can rival or even surpass stocks. Currently, central banks are still increasing their gold holdings, geopolitical risks persist, and the dollar index remains weak—all supporting gold’s upward trajectory.

But remember, gold is an investment tool, not a store of value. If you have swing trading skills and time, gold can bring you substantial gains. If you prefer long-term holding, then let assets better suited for long-term be your focus.