#美联储政策 After reading the latest perspectives from UBS and Cathie Wood, I have some thoughts I’d like to share.

Inflation drops to 0%, US stocks surge to 7700 points, and the Federal Reserve continues easing—this 2026 script indeed sounds "perfect." But that’s precisely where my caution lies. When markets price in optimistic expectations, they tend to be overly optimistic, and the core of following the trend is to detect variables ahead of most people.

My strategy adjustment approach is as follows: in the short term, I can indeed ride the wave of policy benefits with aggressive traders, especially in high-leverage tech sectors. But at the same time, I will allocate some funds to follow more conservative traders—they usually start withdrawing positions when "perfect expectations" reach their peak.

Black swan events like tariffs, government shutdowns, and Fed policy reversals have not yet materialized. The current optimistic tone can easily lead to complacency. My experience is that when all institutions are looking in the same direction, it’s often the riskiest time. So rather than going all-in on the continued rise of US stocks, it’s better to hedge against those variables I can’t see clearly through diversified position tracking.

Practice makes perfect; we’ll see in 2026 whether these predictions hold up.