Platinum breaks through the $1978 mark, with analysts expecting to surpass $2000 again by 2026

Tension in the Spot Market Reaches New Highs

Recently, platinum has continued its strong upward momentum, with a single-day increase of over 3% on December 18, reaching a price of $1,978 per ounce. This rally has lasted for six consecutive trading days, setting a 17-year high. Notably, since early 2025, platinum has surged by nearly 120%, far outperforming gold and silver during the same period.

An important indicator reflecting the tightness of the spot market— the one-month platinum leasing rate— has risen to 14.12%. Edward Sterck, Research Director at the World Platinum Investment Council, warns that 2025 will be the third consecutive year of supply shortages in the global platinum market, and this deficit could extend until 2029.

South African Mining Challenges Intensify Supply Pressure

The core challenge facing platinum supply stems from excessive geographic concentration. Over 70% of global platinum production is concentrated in South Africa, which is simultaneously suffering from aging deposits, unstable power supply, and frequent extreme weather events. These combined factors have led to a continuous decline in local output, further increasing market tension worldwide.

Reallocation of Capital Flows

Following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut policies, precious metals have rallied across the board. Meanwhile, some institutional funds are shifting from the already high-valued gold sector to platinum, which is relatively undervalued and offers greater volatility opportunities, creating a clear capital reallocation effect. This also explains why platinum and palladium have outperformed gold and silver significantly.

Analysts’ Bullish Outlook

FXEmpire’s analysis team indicates that platinum has entered the beginning of a new upward cycle. The main drivers supporting this rally include structural supply gaps, gradually recovering industrial demand, and capital shifting from high-valuation assets.

From a macro perspective, a relatively weak US dollar, the Fed’s dovish stance, and the continued decline of the gold-to-platinum ratio all provide strong upward support for platinum prices. The analysts forecast that platinum could reach a target range of $2,170 to $2,300 in 2026, representing over 10% upside from current levels.

Deutsche Bank’s research team is also optimistic about platinum’s performance in 2026. The bank expects platinum investment demand to recover to 500,000 ounces next year, with a supply-demand deficit of 13% for the year, comparable to the gaps seen in the past two years. Deutsche Bank further notes that as gold continues its upward trend in 2026, silver and platinum-group metals will enter a phase of catch-up rally.