Silver's rally is astonishing, but underlying concerns are emerging—can it sustain through 2026?

The price of silver per ounce experienced a rare surge in 2025. As of December 3rd, spot silver prices broke through $58.95 per ounce, setting a new historical record. From the beginning of the year to now, silver has gained a total of 101%, far outperforming gold's 58% increase during the same period, making it the undisputed star in the precious metals market.

**Institutions are optimistic, but expectations are divided**

Faced with silver's strong performance, major investment banks are generally optimistic, but their forecasts vary. UBS believes that strong investment demand will continue to drive silver's momentum, with expectations that the price per ounce could reach $60 in 2026. The expectations from Bank of America are more aggressive, citing structural supply tightness as the core support for silver, and predicting that prices could climb to $65 per ounce in 2026.

Commerzbank emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's rate-cut cycle will inject new upward momentum into silver, but also issues cautious warnings.

**Gold-Silver ratio hits new lows, rally may face a ceiling**

Notably, silver's remarkable rally has begun to alter the relative relationship between silver and gold. The gold-silver ratio has rapidly fallen from its historical high to 72, reaching the lowest level since August 2021. This signal should not be ignored.

Commerzbank explicitly states that the valuation advantage of silver relative to gold is rapidly diminishing. Currently, silver is no longer severely undervalued, which suggests that its potential for independent upward movement may be gradually exhausted. Moving forward, silver's performance will increasingly depend on gold's trajectory, with their correlation further strengthening.

This institution forecasts a one-year target price of $59 per ounce for silver, reflecting a cautious outlook on its future gains.

**Conclusion**

Silver's performance in 2025 has been undoubtedly impressive, but the ongoing rally is already changing the market's microstructure. As valuation advantages are digested, the independent upward trend will eventually come to an end, and silver will revert to a more synchronized movement with gold. Investors should carefully consider the sustainability of this rally before chasing higher prices.