DOGE, holding the support level at $0.13321, at a crossroads between strength and weakness... How should we interpret the current situation with mixed technical signals?

Dogecoin(DOGE)'s current technical indicators are sending mixed signals. On the daily chart, the RSI hovers around the 40s, oscillating between the neutral line(50) and the oversold boundary, and has yet to confirm a deepening sell signal. At the same time, the MACD is approaching the signal line, nearing a bearish crossover threshold. From an investor’s perspective, it is difficult to determine whether this is a genuine rebound or a sign of breaking below the box range’s lower boundary. In fact, recent price movements show a roughly 2% rebound on Monday, trading near $0.13321, but it is still too early to call it “stable.”

The capital flow in the derivatives market also appears mixed and unclear. On the positive side, open interest (OI) has increased by 4.88% over the past 24 hours, reaching $1.49 billion, and the long ratio has risen from 45.83% on Sunday to 51.05% on Monday. This indicates that retail traders are developing expectations that “a bounce might occur in this range.” However, from another perspective, concerns are mounting. During the same period, long liquidations totaled $3.33 million, significantly exceeding short liquidations of $799,590. This suggests that each time the price dips, larger long positions are being liquidated, implying that the selling pressure still holds the upper hand.

Institutional capital movements are even more subdued. Last week, the Dogecoin ETF saw a slight inflow of $171,920, but this was only within a single day on Wednesday; the other trading days showed net inflows and outflows at zero levels. This indicates that institutional investors are currently “holding off” without clear buy or sell signals.

Price targets and risk zones are clear. Dogecoin has been trading within a box range between the November 21 low of $0.13321 and the November 26 high of $0.15681. If the current support at $0.13321 holds successfully, the first target is the box top at $0.15681. Breaking above this level could lead to the next resistance at the R1 pivot point of $0.17882. Conversely, a clear breakdown below $0.13321 could test the April low of $0.12986, and if that support fails, further declines toward the S1 pivot point of $0.12319 are possible.

Ultimately, the key is whether the $0.13321 support holds. In this mixed environment of bullish and bearish signals, whether this level is maintained or lost will significantly influence the short-term outlook.