2026 Market Outlook: Major Institutions Decode Gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Beyond

As 2025 drew to a close with mixed results across asset classes, leading financial institutions are painting a complex picture for 2026. While some markets showed resilience, others face divergent headwinds and tailwinds. Here’s what the world’s top banks and research firms are signaling.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and Ethereum at a Crossroads

Bitcoin’s Rally Stalls While Institutions Debate the Cycle

Bitcoin entered 2026 with significant momentum absorbed by year-end 2025, yet consensus remains fractured. Standard Chartered recently downgraded its Bitcoin price target to USD 150,000 for 2026, citing diminished expectations for corporate bitcoin treasury purchases by Digital Asset Treasury (DAT). However, ETF inflows are expected to remain a stabilizing force.

Bernstein echoes this USD 150,000 target for 2026, but goes further—predicting USD 200,000 by 2027. The firm argues that Bitcoin has transcended its traditional four-year boom-bust cycle, now operating within an extended bull market framework. This contrasts sharply with Morgan Stanley’s perspective, which maintains that the four-year cycle remains intact and the current bull run is approaching exhaustion.

Ethereum Poised for Significant Appreciation

Ethereum’s prospects appear brighter. Despite ending 2025 nearly flat—mirroring Bitcoin’s muted performance—JPMorgan emphasizes the transformative potential of tokenization, a technology dependent on Ethereum’s infrastructure. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMain, goes further, projecting ETH to reach USD 20,000 in 2026, arguing that Ethereum reached its floor in 2025 and is now positioned for substantial gains.

At current prices near USD 3.27K with recent 24-hour gains of +3.62%, Ethereum’s upside trajectory hinges on broader adoption of blockchain-based asset tokenization.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver Defying Gravity

Gold’s Multi-Year Surge Continues

Gold’s 2025 performance—a 60% annual surge, the largest since 1979—established a powerful momentum that institutions expect to extend into 2026. The World Gold Council forecasts gold appreciation of 5% to 15% under base-case scenarios, with potential for 15% to 30% gains if the Federal Reserve accelerates rate cuts or global economic growth deteriorates sharply.

Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900 per ounce by year-end 2026, supported by sustained central bank accumulation and rising ETF demand. Bank of America is more bullish, projecting USD 5,000 per ounce, citing persistent U.S. fiscal deficits and mounting national debt as structural tailwinds for the precious metal.

Silver’s Supply Shortage Becomes a Pricing Catalyst

Silver’s 2025 outperformance—significantly exceeding gold’s gains as the gold-silver ratio compressed—reflects growing supply-demand imbalances. The Silver Institute warns of a structural global supply deficit, driven by robust industrial demand, recovering investment interest, and slowing supply expansion. This gap is expected to persist and potentially widen throughout 2026.

UBS has raised its 2026 silver target to USD 58 to USD 60 per ounce, with potential upside to USD 65/oz. Bank of America similarly projects USD 65/oz by year-end, suggesting silver’s supply constraints will remain a pricing catalyst.

Equities: The Nasdaq 100 in the Spotlight

The Nasdaq 100 advanced 22% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% gain and extending a three-year winning streak. Most institutions anticipate continued strength in U.S. equities during 2026, anchored by persistent artificial intelligence investment cycles.

JPMorgan highlights that hyperscale data-centre operators—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta—are expected to sustain elevated capital expenditure over coming years, with combined spending potentially reaching hundreds of billions by 2026. This cycle should buoy Nasdaq 100 constituents like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

JPMorgan outlined upside scenarios for the S&P 500 approaching 7,500 by 2026 year-end, while Deutsche Bank has sketched more optimistic scenarios targeting 8,000, contingent on earnings acceleration and AI-driven investment momentum. Extrapolating these S&P 500 targets suggests the Nasdaq 100 could exceed 27,000 points in 2026.

Currency Markets: Divergence and Debate

EUR/USD: Likely to Rise, Though Turbulence Looms

EUR/USD climbed 13% in 2025—its largest annual gain in nearly eight years—as the U.S. dollar weakened. Most institutions expect further appreciation in 2026, supported by divergent monetary policy paths: the Federal Reserve cutting rates while the European Central Bank maintains steady policy.

JPMorgan and Nomura forecast EUR/USD approaching 1.20 by year-end 2026, while Bank of America targets 1.22. Morgan Stanley, however, warns of second-half volatility, projecting EUR/USD to initially rise to 1.23 before retreating to 1.16 as U.S. economic outperformance reasserts itself.

USD/JPY: Carry-Trade Unwind Risk Clouds Outlook

USD/JPY ended 2025 down roughly 1% despite initial strength, with 2026 forecasts sharply divided. JPMorgan and Barclays remain bullish, projecting USD/JPY to 164 by year-end 2026. JPMorgan argues that expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes are already embedded in prices, and Japanese fiscal expansion may pressure the yen.

Nomura counters that narrowing interest-rate differentials will diminish the appeal of yen carry trades. Should U.S. economic indicators weaken, unwinding of these positions could trigger yen appreciation, potentially driving USD/JPY to 140 before 2026 concludes. For context, 200,000 yen converts to approximately USD 1,370 at current levels, reflecting the currency pair’s sensitivity to macro shifts.

Energy Markets: Oil Faces Downside Pressure

Crude oil plunged nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ restored production and U.S. output expanded. For 2026, many institutions see downside risks skewed toward oversupply—a reversal from 2025’s energy-supported environment—especially if OPEC+ maintains elevated output and global demand growth moderates.

Goldman Sachs outlined a bearish scenario with WTI crude averaging USD 52 per barrel and Brent USD 56/barrel in 2026. JPMorgan similarly highlighted downside scenarios with WTI potentially averaging USD 54/barrel and Brent USD 58/barrel, contingent on persistent supply surpluses outweighing geopolitical support.

The Bottom Line

2026 appears to be a year of bifurcated opportunity: precious metals and cryptocurrencies benefit from macro uncertainty and central bank accommodation, while energy markets face structural oversupply. Currency movements will depend critically on divergent monetary policy paths and economic data. Investors should prepare for heightened volatility across all asset classes as institutions recalibrate their positioning amid shifting macro conditions.