2026 Markets Forecast: What Do Wall Street and Leading Banks Actually Expect From Gold, Bitcoin, and Major Assets?

The Gold Rally That Broke Records — Will It Continue Climbing in 2026?

Gold delivered a remarkable 2025, posting its strongest annual performance since 1979 with a stunning 60% surge. The World Gold Council suggests this momentum could persist into 2026, projecting gains between 5% and 15% under base-case scenarios. If we see deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts coupled with broader dollar weakness and escalating geopolitical flashpoints, the upside could expand dramatically — potentially reaching 15% to 30%.

Wall Street’s heavyweight institutions aren’t pumping the brakes. Goldman Sachs has set its 2026 gold target at $4,900 per ounce, supported by accelerating central bank accumulation and steady ETF buying flows. Bank of America takes an even more bullish stance, targeting $5,000/oz, with the rationale tied to widening U.S. fiscal gaps and ballooning national debt — both traditional gold tailwinds. Across major investment banks, consensus price targets cluster in the $4,500–$5,000 range.

Silver’s Hidden Outperformance: The Supply Crisis Nobody’s Talking About

Silver quietly outpaced gold in 2025, a reversal driven by the gold-to-silver ratio compression and tightening physical supplies. The Silver Institute has flagged a structural supply shortfall in global silver markets — industrial demand remains robust, investment appetite is recovering, and production growth is decelerating. This imbalance looks set to intensify rather than resolve during 2026.

UBS has lifted its 2026 silver target to $58–60 per ounce, with upside potential toward $65/oz. Bank of America independently projects silver hitting $65/oz in 2026. For investors seeking commodity exposure with less headline attention than gold, silver’s fundamental backdrop is quietly compelling.

Bitcoin at a Crossroads: $150,000 vs. $200,000 — Which Path Wins?

Bitcoin’s 2025 was a tale of euphoria followed by reality checks — it hit all-time highs before retreating, finishing the year roughly flat. The crypto’s current spot price sits around $93.64K, having experienced a -0.60% pullback over the last 24 hours.

Standard Chartered has revised its 2026 Bitcoin target downward to $150,000 from an earlier $200,000 call, citing reduced expectations for crypto treasury buying as government asset accumulation potentially slows. However, ETF inflows should remain a powerful support mechanism. Bernstein maintains a more constructive medium-term view, modeling Bitcoin at $150,000 by end-2026 and $200,000 by 2027, arguing that Bitcoin has broken free from its traditional four-year cycle and entered an elongated bull phase.

Morgan Stanley challenges this thesis, contending that the four-year cycle remains intact and warning the bull market is approaching exhaustion. This divergence of opinion between heavyweight strategists perfectly captures 2026’s Bitcoin uncertainty.

Ethereum’s Tokenization Story: From Flat Finish to $20,000?

Ethereum endured greater volatility than Bitcoin during 2025, also closing the year near breakeven, currently trading around $3.27K with a positive 1.97% move in the past 24 hours. Yet institutions see transformative potential ahead.

JPMorgan has underscored the enormous opportunity in tokenization — the digital representation of real-world assets on blockchain networks — which would lean heavily on Ethereum’s infrastructure. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMain, goes further, forecasting Ethereum could reach $20,000 in 2026 as the tokenization supercycle materializes. He argues that Ethereum bottomed during 2025 and is positioned for a substantial rebound. For context, converting major currencies illustrates the scale: approximately 20,000 yen in US dollars equals roughly $135–$140 USD, a modest baseline against ETH’s projected trajectory.

The Nasdaq’s AI-Fueled Engine: Can It Sustain 22% Annual Gains?

The Nasdaq 100 surged 22% in 2025, eclipsing the S&P 500’s 18% performance and extending a third consecutive year of outperformance. The earnings engine? Artificial intelligence capital spending.

JPMorgan identifies hyperscale data centre operators — Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta — as the core beneficiaries, with combined capex potentially reaching hundreds of billions of dollars through 2026. This spending wave should anchor semiconductor and chip design stocks like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom. JPMorgan charts an S&P 500 path to 7,500, while Deutsche Bank presents even more aggressive scenarios pointing toward 8,000 by year-end 2026, contingent on robust earnings expansion and sustained AI-driven capex.

By extension, the Nasdaq 100 could challenge 27,000 points in 2026 based on analyst targets derived from S&P guidance.

Currency Wars Intensify: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and the Dollar’s Dilemma

EUR/USD: Divergent Monetary Policy Creating Upside

The euro surged 13% against the dollar in 2025 — its best year in nearly eight years — as greenback weakness took hold. Looking ahead, interest rate divergence becomes the key: the Fed is cutting while the ECB holds steady, a dynamic that should support further euro appreciation.

JPMorgan and Nomura both see EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by 2026 year-end. Bank of America is more aggressive, targeting 1.22. However, Morgan Stanley issues a critical caveat: if the U.S. economy outperforms Europe in H2 2026, the rally could reverse. Morgan Stanley expects EUR/USD to first surge to 1.23, then retreat to 1.16 as U.S. macro surprises to the upside.

USD/JPY: Consensus Broken on the Yen’s Direction

USD/JPY finished 2025 essentially flat after initial weakness and a partial rebound. Looking ahead, institutions are sharply divided.

JPMorgan and Barclays are constructive, with JPMorgan arguing that Bank of Japan rate hike expectations are already priced in and Japanese fiscal expansion will pressure the yen. It forecasts USD/JPY reaching 164 by end-2026. Nomura, conversely, warns that narrowing interest rate differentials will reduce yen carry trade attractiveness. If U.S. macroeconomic indicators soften, unwinding of carry positions could trigger rapid yen appreciation, with Nomura projecting USD/JPY tumbling to 140.

Crude Oil’s Oversupply Problem: A Headwind for 2026?

Crude prices plunged nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ ramped production and U.S. output accelerated, flooding markets with barrels. For 2026, downside risks appear skewed toward continued oversupply.

Goldman Sachs outlines a bearish case in which WTI crude averages around $52/barrel and Brent near $56/barrel throughout 2026. JPMorgan similarly highlights downside scenarios with WTI near $54 and Brent around $58, both contingent on sustained supply surpluses overwhelming demand growth. Investors should prepare for range-bound energy prices and continued margin pressure on energy equities.

Bottom Line: 2026’s Asymmetric Risk Reward

The emerging 2026 picture is one of divergence and competing narratives. Gold and silver appear well-supported by structural factors and central bank demand. Crypto faces cyclical and policy uncertainty, with Bitcoin and Ethereum’s paths highly dependent on macro developments and regulatory clarity. Equities enjoy AI tailwinds but face valuation questions after 2025’s sharp rally. Currency markets reflect widening rate differentials and shifting geopolitical weight. Energy remains under structural pressure. Successful 2026 navigation will require differentiating genuine structural catalysts from cyclical noise — and institutions themselves remain far from consensus on several critical calls.