The truth behind the memory price hike: Why did Nanya Technology break through 190 yuan?

Behind the Stock Price Surge: HBM’s Capacity Grab Sparks Major DDR4 Shortage

Micron recently issued an optimistic outlook, instantly igniting bullish sentiment across the entire memory sector. Nanya Technology (2408) followed with buying momentum, reaching a new high of 190 NT dollars during the trading session, ultimately closing at 189 NT dollars, up more than 12 NT dollars for the day, a 7.08% increase, with trading volume also expanding by over 117,000 shares.

This rally is far from a false fire. The real market driver comes from an “urgent” capacity shift—three major global memory manufacturers are reallocating DDR4 capacity at unprecedented speed to seize the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market for AI servers. Changxin Memory announced it will slash DDR4 monthly capacity by half in 2026 to 10,000 wafers, and Micron’s Crucial brand also declared it will cease some DDR4 production in early 2026. Just a few news reports, but they have thoroughly rewritten the supply side of the entire market.

Why Can Nanya Technology Benefit from This Wave? The Yield Advantage of 1B Process

While major players are collectively shifting toward HBM, Nanya Technology has become a “fisherman reaping benefits.” Its self-developed 10-nanometer class 1B process has entered mass production, with yield and efficiency clearly leading the industry. Data shows that 1B process products accounted for over 30% of 2025 bit output, with 16Gb DDR5 5600 products delivered steadily, and even higher-speed 6400 MT/s versions entering verification.

The key lies in the transformation of ASP (average selling price). DDR5 products are already much more expensive than DDR4. Once Nanya’s 1B process 16Gb DDR4 shipments surpass the 10% revenue threshold, the gross margin recovery driven by product upgrades is directly reflected in the financial reports. Institutional investors estimate that this quarter’s ASP quarter-on-quarter growth rate could be revised upward from the original 35% to 55%. Such an increase has not occurred in the memory cycle over the past decade.

Could the Price Reach 230 NT Dollars? Looking at Nanya’s Story from the Target Price

Market optimism for Nanya has already been incorporated into research reports—major investment firms have raised their target price from 160 NT dollars directly to 230 NT dollars. The key assumption is that in 2026, gross margin will challenge a record high of 64.5%, with annual EPS expected to explosively grow to 23.25 NT dollars, far above the previous estimate of 14 NT dollars.

From a technical perspective, today’s solid long bullish candlestick has stabilized above all moving averages, and RSI and KD indicators also show bullish alignment. As long as subsequent support holds the gap, the stock still has upward momentum. However, investors should not ignore risks—recently, the entire memory group has surged collectively, with modules manufacturers like Apacer hitting limit-up, and capital concentration becoming too high. Plus, with the New Year holiday approaching, seasonal adjustments in market volume are likely. In the short term, profit-taking could lead to increased volatility.

What’s Next? The Key Is the Price Trend in Early 2026

In the long term, Nanya has shifted from a traditional cyclical stock to an AI infrastructure dividend stock. The key point to watch is whether DRAM spot and contract prices will continue to rise in early 2026. As long as this trend persists, Nanya’s long-term bull pattern will truly begin. In other words, the current rally driven by the shortage wave is just the beginning; the real show is still ahead.