Copper prices continue to rise, impacting the Taiwan stock market. First Copper gathers nearly 10,000 buy orders. How will investors respond next?

London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices broke through the historical high of $11,538 per ton, driving Taiwanese copper concept stocks to rally collectively. Among them, the benchmark stock First Copper (2009) surged to the daily limit price of NT$47.75, hitting a new high in nearly 8 months, and attracted nearly 10,000 buy orders by the close. This wave of international copper market rally has transmitted to Taiwan. Does it signal the start of a new upward trend, or is it the last sprint before market sentiment overheats?

Multiple Factors Driving International Copper Prices, Supply-Demand Imbalance as a Key Catalyst

The current rise in copper prices is not merely speculative capital but supported by solid market fundamentals. First, major copper mines worldwide are under pressure. Countries like Chile and Indonesia are experiencing production disruptions, leading to tighter ore supply.

Second, trade expectations are also pushing prices higher. Market rumors suggest the US may impose tariffs on imported primary copper products, sparking a rush among global traders to ship copper. Asian copper inventories are accelerating outflows to the US and other regions, further worsening spot market supply shortages.

Third, the green energy transition injects lasting momentum into the copper market. Electric vehicle industry, solar capacity expansion, and grid infrastructure upgrades all have huge demand for copper. These rigid demands provide a long-term foundation for copper prices. Wei Mingyu, an analyst at Ruiyuan Investment Consulting, pointed out that this strong performance of international copper prices is backed by solid supply and demand fundamentals, providing ample momentum for stocks like First Copper and related stocks to advance.

Taiwan Stock Market Follows the Trend, Copper Concept Stocks Heat Up

The hot international market quickly attracted Taiwan stock market funds. First Copper has become the leader in this round of rally. After a volume surge on Monday, it consolidated for a day, then today surged with high volume to hit the daily limit, showing a fierce upward momentum.

From a technical perspective, First Copper has shown characteristics of a low-base upward transition, with ideal price-volume coordination. With the strength of international copper prices, Wei Mingyu indicated that the next target for this stock will challenge the previous large-scale trapped area at NT$48.75. If it can break this level effectively, a larger upward space may open.

Copper-related sectors also performed strongly. Huaring (1608) rose over 7% intraday, Daya (1609) increased more than 3%, and the buying enthusiasm across the entire sector was ignited, reflecting market optimism about the copper industry chain.

Technical Indicators Signal Caution, Short-term Overheating Correction Needed

However, behind the bullish momentum, cautious voices are emerging. From a technical analysis standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart of LME copper has approached the overbought zone, indicating that the short-term rally has been quite rapid, with potential for a technical pullback.

For investors planning to enter, analysts offer several suggestions. First, avoid blindly chasing near the daily limit price, as high market sentiment often accompanies high risks. Second, closely monitor whether individual stocks’ volume-price structure remains stable, i.e., whether the upward movement continues to be supported by trading volume, and watch for signs of volatility in international copper prices at high levels. Additionally, around December 20 may be an important time node to observe the market trend.

Medium to Long-term Outlook: Bullish Pattern Unlikely to Change but Volatility Expected

Overall, with global inventories at low levels, rigid demand from green energy industries, and geopolitical stockpiling, the medium to long-term bullish trend of copper prices remains unlikely to be shaken. However, due to the recent rapid increase, short-term volatility has become inevitable.

For Taiwan stock investors, the future performance of First Copper will be an important reference for market risk assessment. Whether it can lead the sector to continue upward depends on whether international copper prices can stabilize at high levels and whether Taiwanese related companies’ orders and profits can reflect the benefits of raw material price increases. While maintaining a positive outlook for the medium to long term, investors should exercise caution, strictly adhere to risk management principles, and only then can they truly profit from this copper price rally.