Bitcoin fluctuating around US$ 90,000; traders accumulate US$ 250 million in short positions

Bitcoin opened Tuesday’s session on Wall Street under intense selling pressure, falling to US$ 87,700 after another failed attempt to surpass the critical US$ 90,000 mark. According to real-time data, the asset is trading at US$ 91.90K with a 2.33% decline in the last 24 hours, reflecting the volatility that characterizes the market during this period. The US$ 90,000 level continues to serve as the main short-term technical barrier, concentrating sell order volume for weeks.

The supply and demand dynamics in imbalance

The inability to break resistance keeps Bitcoin trapped in a sideways oscillation range with significant volatility. The price is stuck in a narrow interval, reflecting a constant tug-of-war between buyers and sellers without a clear advantage for either side.

This movement occurs in a context of decoupling from the behavior of precious metals. While gold and silver reach historical highs amid the uncertain macroeconomic scenario, Bitcoin does not follow this capital flow—a break from the historical pattern of positive correlation that typically marks risk-off periods.

Technical analysis reveals repeated rejections at the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages on the four-hour chart. These two lines act as dynamic resistance that delineates the medium-term control zone. As long as the price remains below them, the probability of lateral continuation or new support tests remains high.

Short positions grow and liquidity shrinks

Recent data indicate that large investors have opened combined short positions worth US$ 250 million in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. The move suggests a defensive strategy against the risk of further corrections, not necessarily an aggressive bet against the market. However, in a scenario of reduced liquidity, these positions have an amplified impact.

The reduced depth of order books increases market sensitivity to smaller operations, amplifying short-term oscillations. As the year-end approaches, many traders have withdrawn exposure to protect accumulated profits. This seasonal pattern contributes to draining global liquidity and raises the chances of abrupt movements even without new catalysts.

For Bitcoin to consistently break resistance, a significant increase in volume is needed to enable more robust directional capital inflow. Without this trigger, the price continues testing lower zones seeking enough demand to absorb the existing supply.

Technical divergences indicate weakening pressure

Despite the price weakness, momentum indicators are beginning to show constructive signals. On the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is marking higher lows while the price forms lower lows—a setup that characterizes a classic bullish divergence.

The same divergence also appears when observing the relationship between Bitcoin and gold. With the precious metal near US$ 4,500 per troy ounce, the BTC/XAU pair shows a relative loss of value of the crypto asset, suggesting a possible developing technical compression.

Similar technical setups in previous cycles preceded significant movements. Although divergences do not act as isolated triggers, they indicate weakening of the selling pressure and increase the likelihood of reversal if additional confirming factors emerge.

Miner capitulation reduces structural pressure

The network is experiencing a pronounced stress period for miners. The hash rate has fallen 4%—the steepest decline since the first half of 2024—in parallel with a 9% retracement in Bitcoin’s price during the same period. The 30-day realized volatility has exceeded 45%, a level not recorded since April.

This combination of high oscillation with reduced revenue forces less efficient operators to shut down equipment to avoid operational losses. The capitulation process tends to reduce the medium-term structural selling pressure, eliminating marginal agents who need to liquidate assets to cover immediate costs.

An important catalyst was the shutdown of approximately 400,000 machines in China’s Xinjiang province, removing about 1.3 GW of capacity from the network in just 24 hours. The decision was driven by energy reallocation to data centers focused on artificial intelligence—an activity that currently offers higher margins than Bitcoin mining. Estimates indicate that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost in this process, concentrating mining among operators with access to cheaper energy and more efficient infrastructure.

Operating costs in compression and historical recovery

For the Bitmain S19 XP mining model, the breakeven electricity price has fallen from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in one year—a 36% reduction. Operations that do not keep pace with this cost compression face increasing risk of economic infeasibility.

Despite the difficulties, at least 13 countries are already involved in Bitcoin mining with some level of state support, seeking energy or monetary sovereignty. Historically, drops in hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During periods of hash rate contraction over 90-day windows, the average return over six months reached 72%—suggesting that miner capitulation often coincides with the exhaustion of selling pressure.

The market now awaits a more consistent influx of buying capital. With liquidity reduced during the Christmas week, both continuation moves and quick reactions to macroeconomic data may be amplified in Bitcoin’s volatility.