Structural pressure on Bitcoin: between $92,000 and technical recovery signals

The Wall Street trading week revealed a Bitcoin oscillating near US$ 92,000, while technical indicators send contradictory signals about the asset’s next direction. The cryptocurrency closed down 2.16% in the last 24 hours, reflecting a market divided between buyers and sellers.

Miner capitulation accelerates network reorganization

The Bitcoin network is going through a critical restructuring moment. Data from VanEck indicate a 4% drop in the hash rate, the most pronounced movement since the first half of 2024. This decline is directly linked to geopolitical and economic changes in global mining.

In China, approximately 400,000 machines were shut down in Xinjiang province in just 24 hours, removing about 1.3 GW of network capacity. The reason? The reallocation of energy to artificial intelligence data centers, which currently offer higher returns than crypto mining. Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush warn that up to 10% of the global hash rate could suffer permanent loss.

This reorganization concentrates mining power in operators with access to more efficient and cheaper energy, significantly increasing entry barriers in the sector. For Bitmain S19 XP equipment, the breakeven electricity price dropped from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in one year—a 36% reduction. Operations outside this standard face the risk of economic infeasibility.

Institutional short positions and reduced liquidity

Large investors have taken short bets on Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana totaling approximately US$ 250 million. The move represents a defensive strategy against possible corrections, not necessarily an aggressive bet against the market.

The impact of these positions becomes more relevant in a scenario of compressed liquidity. The approaching year-end led many traders to reduce exposure to preserve accumulated gains. This seasonal behavior drains capital and increases market sensitivity to lower-volume operations.

According to expert analyses, Bitcoin tends to remain consolidated while resistance is not recovered with a substantial increase in volume. Without this catalyst, the price continues testing lower support zones in search of sufficient demand to balance the available supply.

Technical divergences suggest weakening sellers

Despite the downward pressure on the spot price, momentum indicators are beginning to reveal constructive setups. On the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers higher lows while the price forms lower lows—a classic bullish divergence.

The same divergence appears in the BTC/XAU ratio with gold. While the precious metal approaches US$ 4,500 per ounce, reaching historic highs, Bitcoin loses relative value. This technical compression suggests a possible portfolio repositioning.

On the four-hour chart, recurring rejections occur at the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages. This zone acts as a dynamic resistance that delineates medium-term control. As long as the price remains below these averages, the probability of lateral continuation or new support tests remains high.

History of post-capitulation recovery

Historically, drops in the hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During 90-day contraction periods, the average return over six months reached 72%, suggesting that miner capitulation often coincides with the exhaustion of selling pressure.

The 30-day realized volatility exceeded 45%, a level not seen since April 2025. This oscillation forces less efficient operators to shut down equipment to avoid operational losses. This natural selection process tends to reduce medium-term structural selling pressure.

Government support and future mining concentration

VanEck estimates that at least 13 countries are already participating in Bitcoin mining with some degree of state support, aiming for energy or monetary sovereignty. This geopolitical diversification offers some resilience to the mining ecosystem.

The Christmas week maintains compressed liquidity, which can amplify both continuation movements and quick reactions to macroeconomic data. The market awaits a more consistent influx of buying capital to break the lateral consolidation characterizing the current moment.