For Trump, the most important moment after taking office is approaching. This Friday (Friday night Beijing time at 23:00) is the U.S. Supreme Court's opinion solicitation day. This is the first time the Supreme Court has directly addressed the legality of Trump's global tariffs at the procedural level, and it could even be the first time the Supreme Court rules on Trump's global tariff policy.

Currently, support on Kalshi is only 30%, which means it is very likely that the Supreme Court will initially determine Trump's tariffs to be illegal. This would have a significant impact on Trump, as much of his work after taking office in 2025 is related to these tariffs.

Moreover, the previously mentioned plan to give money to everyone also relies on tariffs. If Trump's tariffs are judged to be illegal and are canceled or partially canceled, although the Trump administration might use other means to maintain some tariffs, it is very unlikely to be the comprehensive tariffs from before.

The cancellation of tariffs, while greatly affecting Trump's support rate and credibility, will still help with U.S. inflation. More importantly, once Trump's tariffs are declared illegal, it will have a significant impact on the boundaries of Trump's power. $BTC #预测市场争议