Currently, the trend resembles a "deep breath before the movement begins." Only if the 3180-3200 level holds will this correction become a step toward better growth. The current price fluctuates around 3215, and it is recommended to "watch more than act," observing the appearance of a long lower shadow on the 4-hour candlestick chart.

Currently, the trend is like "a deep breath before a surge." As long as the 3180-3200 zone can hold support, this pullback is for a better upward move. The current price hovers around 3215, and it is recommended to "look more and act less," observing whether the 4-hour K-line shows a long lower shadow.
There are two possible forecasts for the upcoming trend:
First possibility: Confirmed pullback then re-attack (probability 60%)
Price finds support in the 3180-3200 range (an important support zone on the 4-hour level). After 8-12 hours of sideways consolidation, consuming the MACD energy on the 1-hour level, it may attempt to push towards the target zone of 3300-3350.
Second possibility: Deep correction and recovery (probability 40%)
If Bitcoin's synchronized decline causes Ethereum to break below 3180, the market may enter a deep correction phase, with the price retesting the previous breakout point around 3120-3150. In this case, consolidation could extend to 2-3 days.
Key indicator analysis:
- Ultra-short term (15 min / 1 hour): Currently dominated by bears, looking for a bottom. At these levels, the price has broken below all moving averages (MA5, 10, 21), showing a downward dispersing state.
- MACD: In the dead cross below the zero line with increasing volume, indicating short-term selling pressure persists.
- WR indicator: In the oversold zone below -80, suggesting a short-term rebound may occur, but this rebound is more of a "technical retracement" rather than an immediate reversal.
Mid-term (4 hours): Critical moment (support test)
The 4-hour chart is the core for judgment, with the price exactly at the MA21 (around 3199-3200). In an uptrend, MA21 is the "lifeline." If it breaks down with increased volume, the rally from around 2900 may be over.
KDJ indicator: Forms a death cross at high levels and quickly moves downward, indicating the price still has the inertia to seek support after probing lows.
Long-term (daily): Bullish structure intact, signs of shakeout evident
The daily chart remains strong, with the MACD golden cross and increasing red bars. From 3307 back to around 3210, on the daily chart, this is just a long upper shadow on a candlestick, a normal correction after a rally, aimed at clearing profit-taking and leveraged positions near 3000.
Entry plan:
❤️ Long entry:
Ethereum is currently stepping on the MA21 (around 3199.55) on the 4-hour chart, which is a vital support line. For a strong upward trend, retracing this moving average is often a high-probability short-term trading point.
• Entry zone (long): 3200 - 3210
• Reason: This is the support level of the 4-hour moving average, and also an integer psychological level with strong support.
• Small stop-loss: 3175
• Reason: The previous low on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts is around 3182. Setting the stop-loss at 3175 can effectively avoid being triggered by "pinning" false breaks on the previous low, and if it breaks below this, it indicates the upward momentum on the 4-hour level has deteriorated, and exit is necessary.
• Risk control: The stop-loss space is about 30-35 points (around 1%), a standard small stop-loss.
• Take profit targets:
• First target: 3260 - 3280 (recovers the recent pullback, also the pressure level of the 1-hour moving average).
• Second target: 3300 - 3310 (previous high, potential for higher if broken).
Market volatility analysis
If 3180 is broken with volume (closing below the candle body), it is recommended to immediately stop the long plan, as the next strong support below is around 3120 - 3140, with a gap in between.
❤️ Short entry:
Option 1: Left-side trading (resisting rebound)
Suitable when the price retraces to resistance and upward momentum weakens.
• Entry zone: 3255 - 3275
• Reason: The 1-hour moving average resistance is in this range. If the price rebounds here but the 15-minute MACD shows divergence, the rebound is ending.
• Small stop-loss: 3315
• Reason: The recent high is around 3307. If the price breaks and stabilizes above 3315, it indicates a strong bullish return, and short positions should be stopped.
• Target: First target 3180, second target 3120.
Option 2: Right-side trading (support break)
Suitable when support is broken and the trend turns bearish.
• Entry zone: 3175 - 3185 (catching the breakdown)
• Reason: The 4-hour MA21 support is around 3200, and the previous pin low was at 3182. If the price closes below 3180, the short-term uptrend is disintegrating, and downside space opens.
• Small stop-loss: 3225
• Reason: Returning above 3220 indicates the breakdown was a "false breakout," and one should exit and wait.
• Target: 3120 - 3100, integer support levels.
Since the 4-hour MACD has not fully turned bearish yet, it is advised to observe the support at 3200 first.
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