Yesterday's gold performance confirmed our previous judgment — it was indeed a strong shakeout within a wide-range consolidation. The US ADP employment data for December fell short of expectations, which became a turning point for the market.

Funds had already taken profits at the 4500 level before the data was released, and the market was still observing. But once the data was out, the bulls immediately reacted, and positive signals began to ferment, pushing the price directly to 4455.67 by the close. The underlying logic is quite clear: the Fed's rate cut cycle in 2026 is brewing, the US dollar is expected to weaken in the medium to long term, inflation hedging needs are rising, and geopolitical safe-haven demand is also supporting gold. The ADP data eased concerns about overheating US employment, solidifying the medium to long-term upward trend.

From a technical perspective, gold quickly rebounded after dropping to 4423.49, and the key 4400 level was not effectively broken. The price held above 4450 at the close, indicating strong buying support below. Both the 15-minute and 1-hour charts are in a consolidation phase. After the positive ADP data, the probability of a bullish rebound at the 4500 level has significantly increased.

The follow-up view is as follows: once the price stabilizes above 4440, consider a light long position to test the upside, remember to set a stop-loss. The first target is 4465, and if broken, then look toward 4480.