Bitcoin goes global with leverage: Spot market dominance, beware of excessive speculation risks

【Blockchain Rhythm】 Recently, the Bitcoin market has experienced a clear structural shift. Since breaking away from the deleveraging phase in December, the market has gradually entered a period of mild expansion — which is a very positive signal. The Z-Score turning positive has fully confirmed the rebound in market sentiment, but interestingly, the divergence phenomenon of the indicator reveals a deeper fact: this rally is mainly driven by the spot market’s strength, rather than leverage.

This situation is actually quite healthy. Why? Because the risk has significantly decreased. Think about it — without a large amount of leveraged funds speculating, the likelihood of chain reactions of liquidations is naturally much lower. The current price stability at this level is primarily driven by a very simple factor — the growth rate of open interest contracts is restrained, without explosive, crazy growth. This is the foundation for the market to sustain.

But the risk points must also be clearly understood. If the divergence indicator suddenly reverses to the positive zone without price support, that’s dangerous. It usually indicates that speculative positions have accumulated too much, and a correction could be fierce.