Dogecoin has recently performed strongly, with the price rising to around $0.152, nearly a 30% increase since the beginning of the year. The short-term downtrend has also been broken. But does this mean a true bull market is coming? I'm afraid it's not that simple.

From a technical perspective, the current situation is a bit delicate. The RSI indicator shows that the bulls are still relatively strong, but it is approaching overbought levels, which means there is a significant risk of a short-term correction. Exchange supply is increasing, and long positions are continuously accumulating, but liquidation risks are also rising, and market signals are mixed. More importantly, can it hold the support zone of $0.150-$0.162? If it drops below, there are supports at $0.145 and $0.142, but each support break will weaken the overall rebound's credibility.

To truly kick off a bull market, Dogecoin needs to meet several conditions. First, the weekly chart must stabilize in the $0.16-$0.18 range, with a volume breakout through long-term downtrend lines and moving averages. Second, the broader environment must cooperate—Bitcoin needs to continue strengthening, liquidity should remain ample, and positive developments like ETFs or real-world payment scenarios would help. Additionally, community enthusiasm and celebrity effects (such as Musk's influence) must be maintained to attract new capital. Finally, improvements in trading efficiency and expansion of application scenarios can reduce over-reliance on market sentiment.

But in reality, none of these conditions are guaranteed. High volatility is Dogecoin's destiny, easily influenced by market sentiment and news. Regulatory policies, increasing industry competition, and sudden liquidity contractions—any of these can trigger sharp fluctuations. Looking at history, those coins that experienced explosive growth often relied on cyclical benefits and sufficient liquidity, and this current wave seems more like a technical rebound, not enough to confirm the arrival of a bull market climax.

In terms of operation, focus on the support at $0.150 and resistance at $0.162 in the short term. Use small positions for phased take-profit and stop-loss, and avoid leverage. Medium-term, if it can hold above $0.18, a target of $0.20-$0.25 is optimistic; if it falls below $0.14, the trend will turn bearish. Long-term, application deployment and regulatory progress are the only ways to change the "emotion-driven" nature of the market, otherwise, replicating historic explosive rallies will be difficult.

To sum up: at this stage, it is more a rebound than the start of a bull market. The real opportunity will come when key levels are broken with volume and fundamentals resonating together. Risk management should always be the top priority.