2026-01-08 02:27:53

According to market expectations, the Federal Reserve is very likely to initiate a rate cut cycle in 2026, with an estimated 2-5 cuts throughout the year, and the probability of at least 2 cuts approaching 99%. Powell's term will last until mid-May 2026, which means the policy tone in the first half of the year is crucial.

The key is that liquidity release in the third quarter may exceed market expectations. Coupled with the end of major events like the World Cup, funds are expected to accelerate into the crypto space, and this wave could cause significant volatility in the crypto market. Mainstream altcoins are likely to reach local highs during this window, while Bitcoin, as a market indicator, is expected to show a clear upward trend—conservatively estimated to at least break the $150,000 mark. Driven by liquidity, the market's temperament could become quite fierce.

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SolidityJester

· 12h ago

Are they trying to fool us again into buying in late 2024, only to see interest rates cut in 2026? By then, it'll be too late. Powell's policy tone in the first half of the year is important, but the key question is whether he will actually cut rates. $150,000? Just hearing this number makes me realize I should be prepared to cut losses. Liquidity is fierce, but it's just a synonym for pump and dump; retail investors are always the ones running behind. It's said to be capital inflow, but in reality, it's just institutions waiting to suck blood and harvest. The market will have a trend right after the event ends? Why does that sound so familiar... I remember hearing that last time too. Saying that the altcoin phase has reached a high point is not wrong, but the problem is, how do you know which is the high point?

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ProbablyNothing

· 01-08 16:33

150,000 dollars? No, I think breaking 200,000 would be normal, given the fierce liquidity. --- The third quarter window is really crucial. By then, altcoins might take off directly, so we need to plan ahead. --- How Powell operates in the first half of the year can really determine the rhythm later. The logic makes sense. --- Wait, funds only flow in after the World Cup ends? Then shouldn't we get in early now? Haha. --- Fierce liquidity is a good thing, just worried that a black swan might come and crush us to the ground again. --- The story of 2026 is being told now, but when that time comes, the market will be a different scene, you know. --- Mainstream coins step aside; I'm just waiting for those small coins to take off under liquidity. --- 99% chance of rate cuts? Feels like the Federal Reserve loves to defy expectations like that. --- Conservative at 150,000? Bro, are you hinting it could go higher? I'm paying close attention. --- The temperament of the crypto world is fierce, which is code for: high volatility, high returns, and also high risk. Think it through.

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PriceOracleFairy

· 01-08 02:57

ngl the 99% probability on those cuts is giving copium energy... liquidity dynamics don't work in neat little boxes lol

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OvertimeSquid

· 01-08 02:57

Powell's actions in the first half of the year directly determine the subsequent direction, and this is the key. Interest rate cuts are a certainty; it's just a matter of the magnitude. The range of 2-5 cuts is too loose. Once liquidity is released, the crypto market will take off immediately, but it depends on whether Q3 can truly exceed expectations. The $150,000 resistance level—whether it can be broken at that time depends on luck and the funding environment. Altcoins are more vulnerable to being cut in this wave; it's still important to stick to mainstream coins.

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BloodInStreets

· 01-08 02:44

The expectation of interest rate cuts always sounds so tempting, but what happens when it's time to actually implement them? Liquidity release exceeding expectations? That's a joke. I've heard that phrase too many times, and in the end, it's usually the retail investors who carry the boat up to the halfway point. The $150,000 hurdle may sound simple, but by the time you actually push through, it's long been someone else's chip. Altcoins reaching their peak during that window? That's right, and then they start to halve. I'm already prepared to take over.

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