In 2026, the Bitcoin market will not continue the unilateral upward trend of last year, but will enter a phase filled with high volatility, wide-range fluctuations, and repeated frictions. This is not a recession, but a process of laying the groundwork during the transition between old and new cycles.

The key judgment is: the year will experience painful declines, as well as sudden surges, but overall will oscillate within a large range. The driving forces have shifted from the simple halving story to a multi-party game involving Federal Reserve liquidity and institutional behavior (ETF allocations, national reserves increases).

**Q1 Scenario: Confused Expectations, Rise First, Then Fall**

In January, the market may see a technical rebound due to the inverse effect of last year's "Christmas Short Trap." If Bitcoin can effectively break above the $91,000 triangle consolidation upper boundary, the short-term target could be in the $97,000-$107,000 range. However, this rebound is likely to be a "smoke screen."

Entering February and March, macro uncertainties will gradually accumulate. Federal Reserve policy expectations, USD index fluctuations, geopolitical risks heating up... these factors will create pressure on the market, and rebound heights will be suppressed. During this phase, institutional investors will be more cautious in choosing entry points.

Overall, the operational framework for the year is to focus on risk digestion and divergence in the first half, and gradually brew new opportunities in the second half. Every fluctuation is a process of market re-pricing, and investors need to patiently wait for moments when the structure becomes clearer.