Sharing some practical tips for friends who are just entering the crypto world.

In fact, the price fluctuations of crypto assets, their underlying logic, and traditional financial assets are all driven by the same core forces. Let’s break it down clearly so everyone doesn’t have to stumble around blindly.

**1. The Federal Reserve’s Playbook (Most Important)**

When the Federal Reserve holds meetings, discusses interest rates, or even when the Chair speaks, the crypto market tends to react strongly—this is normal. When interest rates rise, the US dollar appreciates, and crypto assets are usually hammered down; conversely, when rate cut expectations emerge, funds flood in again.

Keep a close eye on CPI and PCE data. Inflation figures influence the Fed’s moves and directly impact investors’ expectations of crypto’s inflation hedge capabilities.

**2. US Economic Fundamentals (Cannot Be Ignored)**

Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and small non-farm reports are released, and everyone is pondering whether the US economy is truly strong or not. When the economy is doing well, markets expect the Fed to continue raising rates, leading to capital withdrawal from risk assets and pressure on the crypto sector; when the economy cools down, risk aversion rises, and funds tend to flow into high-risk assets like crypto.

GDP growth slowdown is also a signal—people seek safe havens, and value-oriented assets within crypto may present opportunities.

**3. Geopolitics and Market Sentiment (Short-term Bombs)**

International conflicts, economic crises, and major events cause people to instinctively seek safe havens. During these times, the crypto market often experiences rapid surges, with high volatility. These are the most immediate catalysts in the short term.

**4. Peripheral Factors (Don’t Underestimate)**

The strength of the US dollar index—crypto often moves inversely to the dollar. A strong dollar can drag down crypto prices.

The buying trends of large institutions or central banks can also provide long-term support.

The linkage effects of oil and commodity prices become especially evident when inflation expectations fluctuate.

Mastering these four logical categories will help you judge market trends more quickly when reading news.