Recently, Ethereum has been bouncing back and forth between $3200 and $3300. Many people are asking whether we can truly break through the $3300 barrier. I’ve been watching this closely and I’ll say it straight: in the short term, it’s about sentiment; in the medium term, supply and demand; in the long term, ecosystem development.

**Technically, there are indeed bright spots, but pitfalls are hidden**

The falling wedge pattern just broke down. According to textbook theory, it could rise to around $4060, a gain of nearly 29.5%. Sounds good, but the reality is—breakouts require volume to follow. Unfortunately, recently, trading volume has been insufficient, and holiday trading itself tends to be light.

What’s the most heartbreaking? As the price rises, those big holders with 100,000 to 1 million ETH start dumping. In just three days, they sold off 300,000 ETH, worth nearly $1 billion. These whales are sharp-eyed, targeting breakout points to dump, directly pouring cold water on the market. Whether it can hold in the short term or fall further depends entirely on whether retail investors and institutions are willing to buy the dip.

**On the supply and demand side, it’s a different story**

Don’t be fooled by the lukewarm price action; institutions aren’t idle. The holdings of Ethereum spot ETFs have already reached nearly 5% of circulating supply, with 67 institutional entities hoarding 6.81 million ETH. These big players are playing the long game, betting on an ecosystem explosion after 2026.

The circulating supply is quietly shrinking as well. Over 30% of ETH is now either staked or locked in various DeFi protocols. The truly freely tradable supply is getting smaller and smaller. What does this mean? The supply side is gradually being controlled, so when prices want to rise, there’s less selling pressure; when prices fall, there aren’t many chips to sell.

So if you ask me, the $3300 level isn’t that simple. The expectation of whale dumping is still present, but institutional long-term positioning is also underway. This is an invisible battle, and in the short term, no one can say who will win.