The short-term trend of ETH indeed shows some signs of weakness. The price has already fallen below the 30-day moving average at 3211, dropping to below the middle Bollinger Band at 3185, clearly indicating that the bears are gaining momentum.

Although the MACD has shown a golden cross, its position is relatively low, just below the zero line, with insufficient rebound strength. The trading volume has shrunk to 42.8k, far below the 5-day average volume of 98.9k, indicating that market participants are mostly on the sidelines, with few willing to enter aggressively, resulting in a rather quiet atmosphere.

Looking at key levels: on the resistance side, in the short term, the price is stuck around the area where the 30-day moving average at 3211 and the middle Bollinger Band at 3185 overlap. If this hurdle cannot be overcome, the downside may continue. Above that are the upper Bollinger Band at 3260 and the previous high at 3308; breaking through these levels requires increased volume. On the support side, recent support is near the 7-day moving average at 3155 and the upper boundary of the accumulation zone. If this support is broken, the decline could accelerate. The more critical line is the lower Bollinger Band at 3110, and further down are the psychological levels at 3050 to 3000. If these cannot hold, the price may probe lower.

There are three possible scenarios for the upcoming movement:
1. Repeated oscillation at the bottom, requiring holding at 3155 and a volume breakout above 3185, targeting the 3185 to 3260 range. This scenario has a three-star probability.
2. Continued decline, if volume breaks below 3155 and MACD turns bearish, with targets at 3110 to 3050. This scenario has a higher probability, rated four stars.
3. A strong reversal, with daily volume exceeding 200k and the price rising above 3260, aiming for above 3300, but this scenario is less likely, with two stars.

From a trading perspective, current volume is still insufficient, and the direction is not clear enough. It is advisable not to rush into building positions. Wait until the price clearly breaks above 3185 or drops below 3155 before making a decision. If you already hold long positions, set a stop-loss at 3155. Those looking to short can try a small position in the 3185 to 3211 range, with a stop-loss above 3260. The two key points to watch are whether trading volume can rebound above 100k and whether the MACD can stay above the zero line.