Don't be fooled by the macro narrative: 10x Research reveals the three true driving forces behind Bitcoin

As we start 2026, the market is filled with various macro narratives. But according to the latest analysis from 10x Research, these simple stories may be misleading investors. What truly drives Bitcoin’s movements are not these macro narratives, but market structure, technological resets, and actual capital behavior.

The Pitfalls of Macro Narratives

10x Research points out an interesting phenomenon: the US stock market benefited from strong seasonal capital flows earlier this year, but Bitcoin’s operating rules are completely different. The market habitually looks for simple cause-and-effect relationships—like “US stocks rise, Bitcoin follows”—but history shows that this linear thinking often leads to pitfalls.

Entering 2026, many macro indicators are signaling confidence. But this is precisely the problem. According to 10x Research’s observations, the strongest macro indicators and highest confidence levels are often when signals are weakest and most misleading. It sounds counterintuitive, but this is the true reflection of market cycles.

The Three Truly Important Signals

Market Structure Changes

As calendar effects fade and macro correlations disintegrate, the market structure itself is undergoing subtle changes. This includes the redistribution of liquidity, evolution of holdings, and the inflow and outflow of different types of capital. These structural signals are often overlooked, but their influence on medium-term trends far exceeds simple macro narratives.

Actual Capital Behavior

The key question is: is real capital preparing for the next institutional shift? This isn’t about news releases from institutional investors, but about their actual position changes. 10x Research emphasizes that genuine signals appear in trading data and capital flows, not in press releases and commentary.

Technological Reset

The market’s technical landscape is also experiencing significant resets. This includes rebuilding support and resistance levels, changes in volatility structures, and the evolution of price patterns.

Current Market Status of Bitcoin

Based on data, Bitcoin is currently in an interesting position:

The price hovers around $91,000, with market cap share remaining high at 58.20%, and 24-hour trading volume around $3.931 billion. This state is neither extremely optimistic nor pessimistic; instead, it shows that the market is waiting for genuine directional signals.

Insights for Investors

The core advice from 10x Research is actually very simple: don’t be fooled by macro narratives. When everyone is discussing Federal Reserve policies, economic outlooks, and other macro topics, the real trading opportunities are often hidden in subtle changes in market structure, capital flows, and technical signals.

Personal opinion: this analysis captures an important truth about market psychology—simple narratives are often the most deceptive. In an age of information overload, being able to distinguish real signals from false narratives is itself a crucial trading advantage.

Summary

10x Research reminds the market that Bitcoin’s next move will be driven by market structure and capital behavior, not macro narratives. We are currently in a moment of high confidence but weak signals, which is often when markets are most prone to turning. The key is to learn how to identify genuine signals from market structure, capital flows, and technical analysis, rather than being misled by simple macro stories. How the next phase unfolds may well depend on these overlooked details.