ETH short-term correction of 3.38%: institutional continuous positioning vs short-term risk game

ETH has decreased by 3.38% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $3,161.89, after touching a low of $2,989.90. This correction appears to be a simple price fluctuation on the surface, but in reality, it reflects the complex interplay between long-term support and short-term risks in the market. On one side, institutional investors are accelerating their positions, while on the other, leveraged positions are under pressure. This tension determines the next direction.

Short-term Technical Outlook: Key Support and Liquidation Pressure

Details of Price Fluctuations

According to the latest data, ETH’s 24-hour volatility reached $313.66 (from a low of $2,989.90 to a high of $3,303.56). This range indicates clear bullish and bearish disagreements in the market. More importantly, liquidation data reflects leverage pressure.

In the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced $324 million in liquidations, including $77.51 million in long positions and $15.18 million in short positions. The proportion of long liquidations is significantly higher, indicating that leveraged longs faced greater pressure during this correction.

Critical Point of Bilateral Risks

On the technical side, there are two key zones of concentrated liquidation strength:

If ETH breaks above $3,316, the cumulative short liquidation strength on major exchanges reaches $1.616 billion, which could release upward momentum. Conversely, if it falls below $3,010, the long liquidation strength reaches $754 million, serving as a defensive line for longs.

The current price of $3,161.89 lies between these two levels, suggesting that both upward and downward short-term movements could trigger large-scale liquidations.

Long-term Fundamentals: Institutional Accumulation and Ecosystem Upgrades

Continuous Institutional Buying

The short-term correction cannot hide the optimistic attitude of institutions. BlackRock has been continuously accumulating Ethereum over the past three days, with a total purchase of 46,851 ETH, worth $149 million. This is not a one-time move but a sustained accumulation, indicating that institutions see opportunities at this price level.

More intuitive data from US-listed companies: BTCS Inc. has increased its Ethereum holdings to over 70,000 ETH by the end of 2025, and Bit Digital holds 155,227.3 ETH, with a market value of approximately $460.5 million, of which 138,263 ETH are staked. These companies are not only holding but also participating in staking, demonstrating long-term confidence.

Accelerated Ecosystem Infrastructure Upgrades

Ethereum’s second BPO hard fork has increased the blob limit to 21, directly reducing Layer 2 transaction costs. After BitMine restaked 19,200 ETH, its total staked amount reached 827,008 ETH, valued at $26.2 billion. This reflects confidence in Ethereum’s security and long-term value.

The derivatives market activity is also rising. CME’s average daily trading volume of Ethereum futures contracts has reached 163,000 contracts (including micro contracts), with a 139% annual growth. This indicates that institutional investors are not only deploying in spot markets but also increasing participation in futures markets.

Competitive Pressure and Ecosystem Reshaping

Solana’s Catch-up Momentum

It is unavoidable that Solana exerts some pressure on Ethereum in certain metrics. In 2025, Solana’s DEX trading volume reached $1.57 trillion, a 126% increase from $694 billion in 2024. In developer activity, Solana has 10,753 active developers, surpassing Ethereum’s 8,331.

However, this does not mean Ethereum is declining but reflects normal multi-chain ecosystem differentiation. Ethereum remains the preferred settlement layer for institutional funds, and the thriving Layer 2 ecosystem is also absorbing a large amount of application demand.

Vitalik’s Strategic Reaffirmation

It is worth noting that Vitalik recently reaffirmed Ethereum’s core positioning: not to pursue maximum efficiency, but to achieve true decentralization and censorship resistance. This positioning underpins Ethereum’s long-term value and explains why institutions favor it.

Market Observation and Follow-up Focus

In the short term, $3,010 is a key support level that bulls need to defend, while $3,316 is a critical resistance level that bears need to hold. Fluctuations between these two levels may continue, with liquidation data continuing to dominate short-term price movements.

However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, ongoing institutional deployment, continuous ecosystem upgrades, and Ethereum’s irreplaceable role as a settlement layer all support this correction. The current pullback may present a better opportunity for accumulation rather than a trend reversal signal.

Summary

ETH’s 3.38% correction is a normal market fluctuation, but the underlying logic is worth noting. On one hand, short-term leveraged positions are under pressure, with liquidation data showing bearish pressure; on the other hand, institutional investors are continuously increasing their holdings, and ecosystem upgrades are accelerating. This contrast indicates that the market’s long-term bullish sentiment still dominates, and the short-term correction is more about consolidating positions. The key is whether the $3,010 support can hold and how strong the subsequent rebound will be.