In the past few weeks, Bitcoin has struggled to break above $94,000, repeatedly testing the $90,000 level. The good news is that this level has held, allowing many to finally catch their breath. But honestly, this can't be considered the start of a new rally—at best, it's just a sideways consolidation after a decline.

From the market chart, buyers have been holding firm at the psychological level of $90,000, indicating that some people are indeed looking to buy the dip. However, the problem is that momentum is lacking; whenever the price pushes upward, there are sell-offs, making the overall trend feel a bit unstable.

Looking at candlestick charts alone is too superficial at this point. Professional analysts turn their attention to on-chain data, where an indicator called STH SOPR is particularly crucial—simply put, it’s asking a question: Are recent buyers of Bitcoin making profits and cashing out, or are they trapped in losses?

Analyst Darkfost specifically warns beginners not to be fooled by daily data fluctuations. The key is to look at the 30-day moving average, which provides a clearer view of the overall trend.

Currently, this indicator is slowly climbing from a low point, gradually approaching the critical 1.0 threshold. The meaning of this value is straightforward:

Below 1.0 indicates that short-term buyers are generally losing money; equal to 1.0 means break-even; above 1.0 signifies profits.

The current situation is—short-term holders are still overall in loss, although the extent of losses is narrowing, and the trend hasn't reversed yet. What does this signal?

On one hand, ongoing losses may push some investors to cut their positions, which could continue to weigh down the price.

But from another perspective, it’s precisely during this stage that the risk-to-reward ratio begins to become more attractive—of course, provided the market doesn’t drop sharply again.