In the crypto circle over the years, I have seen too many people busy but continuously losing money—chasing hot topics, frequently stopping losses, and going all-in late at night. It wasn't until I let go of my obsession with technical analysis and started observing capital flows that my account truly turned losses into profits. The process of turning 8,000 USD into 100,000 USD in three months made me realize a truth: making money is never about prediction, but about following certainty.

**Why Effort Sometimes Accelerates Losses**

In the past, I was obsessed with indicators like MACD and RSI, drawing lines and analyzing daily. The result was that the money earned in a bull market was completely lost in a bear market. Later, after careful review, I found that 90% of losses came from three traps: overtrading, emotional decision-making, and blindly bottom-fishing.

Specifically, in the 2024 bull market, I followed the trend and speculated on altcoin hot spots, chasing rallies and selling on dips, causing my account to fluctuate wildly every day. When the market turned bearish, I adopted simplified strategies, steadily building positions, and my returns grew counter to the trend. Market opportunities are always present; what’s truly lacking is the discipline to survive. As seasoned traders say, in the end, the crypto market tests not just technical skills but also mental resilience.

**The Three Key Strategies to Lock in Certainty**

1. Observe capital flows, ignore candlestick patterns. Focus only on the top 20 mainstream coins by market cap, and give up the temptation of small-cap coins. Spending 10 minutes daily on on-chain large transfer and exchange net inflow data is enough. Coins with continuous institutional inflows, even if they dip, shouldn’t cause panic; conversely, avoid coins with outflows even if they rally. Simply put, candlestick charts can deceive, but the movement of real money cannot. For example, when Bitcoin falls below the 30-day moving average, as long as whales are still accumulating on-chain, such a dip is worth participating in.

2. Certainty comes from consensus, not patterns. The reason mainstream coins have lasted so long is not because they have the strongest features, but because they have the strongest consensus. During market emotional swings, following the footsteps of big capital is always safer than guessing the trend.

3. Discipline in execution outweighs stock-picking ability. Set stop-loss, take-profit, and position ratios properly, then execute like a machine. Emotions are the biggest enemy in trading.