2026-01-08 03:28:08

In the past two days, I've been watching Bitcoin's trend and clearly feel that the oscillating downward momentum is becoming evident. Interestingly, I compared it with data from last year—during the 2022 World Cup cycle, the performance of BTC and CHZ, and there are some similarities with the current market trend.

That's how the market is; the script of history often repeats itself. But will this time follow the same trajectory? Or will new variables emerge? We need to keep observing. After all, while cyclical patterns exist, the details of each market cycle can vary greatly. It's useful to use this comparison as a reference, but when it comes to betting, you should still rely on your own risk management logic.

BTC0,13%

CHZ8,53%

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TooScaredToSell

· 7h ago

I'm tired of hearing about historical cycles. This time, it's probably again survivor bias at play. Hmm... that part about CHZ is indeed a bit interesting, but can we really avoid the pitfalls of 2022 this time? The Bitcoin decline has really arrived. My stop-loss orders have long been set. What about you? Last year's data is useless for comparison. Every time they talk about cyclicality, they get proven wrong. I choose to trust my own candlestick analysis. This wave does resemble last year's, but the devil is in the details. I'm still observing. Sorry, but I just want to ask—have you really made money, or do you just compare to historical data? Actually, the worst part isn't the decline; it's the fear of missing the rebound. Regarding CHZ, honestly, it still feels a bit trivial. It's better to go all-in on Bitcoin for peace of mind. Cyclicality is cyclicality. My wallet doesn't believe in superstition. Risk control always comes first. Can this kind of comparison truly guide trading decisions, or is it just for psychological comfort?

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BtcDailyResearcher

· 7h ago

Damn, we're starting to benchmark against last year again. Can it really be replicated this time, or will there be another market shift? History rhymes but never repeats; details are the real killers. A sideways decline tests patience. I'm still waiting for a bottom signal. Who wasn't cut during that wave last year? This time, being smart means managing your risk. It's another cycle theory. Hearing it too much gets annoying; you still need to look at the actual market feedback. The pattern of Bitcoin's movement feels quite different in this trend; don't be too superstitious about historical rules. Comparison is fine, but the key is to master your own rhythm. The 2022 tactics may not apply; the market changes quickly, so you need to adapt on the fly.

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ForumMiningMaster

· 8h ago

History always repeats itself, but whether Bitcoin can follow the script this time depends on the data. Last year's World Cup comparison with the current situation is interesting, but I think the variables will be even greater, so we need to observe for a few more days before making a judgment. The oscillating downward trend has appeared, but if risk control is in place, there shouldn't be too much panic.

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ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 11h ago

Is history repeating itself? This time is different, the macro environment has changed. Comparing to last year is a bit funny. --- I've heard too much about cycle theory, but in the end, it still depends on your stop-loss level. What I fear most is holding onto patterns and losing money. --- The World Cup cycle meme was tired last year, and now it's back. Does the market lack creativity that much? --- I feel like these comparisons are not very useful. Each round's participants, capital environment, and policy background are different. How can you simply apply the same logic? --- I'm also watching, but compared to historical data, I'm more concerned about current on-chain movements—that's the real signal. --- You still need to stay calm before betting. Don't be brainwashed by so-called patterns. Those who believe in stories are the ones who always lose money. --- So, what's your current position? Still on the sidelines? --- The argument is good, but ultimately, risk control is the most important. The rest are just reference points. --- If this wave turns out to be like last year, then we'll have to wait another half a year. Who can hold up?

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BridgeTrustFund

· 01-08 03:58

History repeating itself is a bit虚，细节差异才是赚钱的地方啊 --- Looking at historical data again, can it really be replicated this time? I’m skeptical --- Cycle theory has been talked about too much; it’s better to focus on your own risk control, that’s the real skill --- Bitcoin has indeed been a bit tough these days, but comparing it to last year’s data doesn’t mean much --- To put it simply, it still depends on how you operate; historical references are just that, don’t be too superstitious --- Volatility and downward movement are like this; different details lead to very different results, beware of ambushes --- Comparing data is fine, but don’t be brainwashed by cycle theory; market variables are too many --- Really, every time it’s said that history repeats itself, but each market is different, it’s a bit tiring --- Comparing CHZ and Bitcoin? That logic is a bit far-fetched; each follows its own path --- Risk control is the most important; even the best reference needs to be understood clearly by yourself

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 01-08 03:57

The cycle of history is back again; can it not repeat this time? Bringing up that same rhetoric from last year again, only a fool would believe it. I don't think this wave of Bitcoin will be that simple; the details are too different. The environment in 2022 was completely different from now. Cyclicity is just cyclicity; don't treat it like fate. It all depends on how you operate. Short-term volatility is normal; the key is whether you managed to bottom out or not. That’s the real dividing line. Instead of trying to find patterns in data, it's better to focus on risk control, really. Replaying history? Forget it. Every time this is said, it ends in a crash. It feels like over-interpreting data, the market isn't that predictable. Details determine success or failure—that's the truth. Use references as a guide, but don't take them as gospel.

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LightningLady

· 01-08 03:52

The oscillating downward trend is old news; it still depends on whether it can break new lows later. How did last year's wave go? Can it be the same this time? Feels uncertain. Is history repeating itself? I bet it will throw some tricks this time. Bitcoin is starting to stir again, so boring. Benchmarking is benchmarking, but in the end, you still have to bear the risk yourself; no one can save you. It's the cycle theory again; I'm getting a bit tired of this explanation. I really don't believe it will follow the script; the market has already changed its face. That CHZ chart was a disaster back then; hopefully, it won't happen again this time. Watching it is uncomfortable; why watch the market? Wait for signals and then decide. Oscillations are just oscillations; sooner or later, a direction has to be chosen.

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TradFiRefugee

· 01-08 03:49

It's the same old story of history repeating itself, brother, this time it's really different. I've seen that wave of CHZ before, but now the market sentiment has completely changed. Cycle patterns are useful, but making money has never been about just looking at charts. Risk control + luck, both are essential; comparing only to history is useless. I'm also watching Bitcoin's decline, but very few dare to bottom fish. The real question is where the new variables are, it feels too vague. I agree that the details differ greatly; each market cycle has its own flavor. I just want to know if your comparison ultimately made money or not. The trading logic boils down to two words—stop loss; everything else is just talk. Rather than studying history, it's better to focus on where the current liquidity is.

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SoliditySurvivor

· 01-08 03:39

The repeated story of history repeating itself has been heard too many times. Every time, it's said to look at the details, but the details still lead to failures. --- Bitcoin is starting to repeat that old script again. The comparison to last year's World Cup cycle is somewhat interesting, but truly believing in this is just ridiculous. --- The risk control logic sounds good, but the key is who can really stick to it. --- Compared to 2022? Bro, my stop-loss orders back then had already been triggered. Looking at the chart now, it's just armchair strategizing. --- It's either cycle theory or new variables. In the end, it's just a matter of luck. --- This kind of comparative analysis is just for listening; treating it as an operation manual is doomed. --- Just say it straight: a sideways decline. Don't make so many historical references, as if writing a thesis. --- Same trajectory? Why do I feel it's different every time? Every time, it's the same story. --- Is CHZ really used as a reference? That's a bit off the mark. --- Looks like you're trying to copy homework with this thinking, but this market definitely has new variables. The 2022 approach won't work again.

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