Bitcoin sideways trading forecast sparks disagreement, short-term holders become "invisible bombs"

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s latest warning suggests that Bitcoin may enter a relatively stable sideways consolidation phase in the coming months amid capital depletion, rather than experiencing a sharp market move. This forecast sharply contrasts with Bitcoin’s historical seasonal patterns and has sparked widespread market debate about future trends. Currently, Bitcoin trades around $90,904, with market sentiment remaining cautious.

Capital Depletion as the Main Cause of Sideways Movement

Ki Young Ju points out that the influx of new funds into the Bitcoin market has significantly dried up. This is not due to a loss of confidence among investors but a shift in capital flows. As gold and silver prices continue to rise, some capital is reallocating into traditional assets, including stocks, commodities, and physical gemstones. This short-term shift has noticeably weakened Bitcoin’s appeal.

Against this backdrop, Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin is unlikely to undergo the sharp retracement seen in past cycles. Instead, it is more likely to oscillate within a high range. This means that even if prices decline, the movement will be relatively mild, and investors may face a “torturous” sideways trend rather than a “crash-like” correction.

Divergence from Historical Patterns

This judgment contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s historical performance. Data shows that since 2013, Bitcoin’s average January gain has been 3.81%, with February and March performing even better, averaging gains of 13.12% and 12.21%, respectively.

If the market continues to lack direction in early 2026, it will clearly diverge from this seasonal pattern. This also explains why this forecast has attracted widespread attention.

Market Sentiment Remains Low

On-chain data supports Ki Young Ju’s assessment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been in the “Fear” zone since November 2025, currently at 28, indicating that investor risk appetite remains cautious. Meanwhile, realized losses still dominate. According to the latest data, weekly realized profits amount to $312 million, while realized losses reach $511 million.

This means that despite recent rebounds, many investors are still in a loss position, creating potential selling pressure. Although short-term holders’ selling pressure is temporarily suppressed, this suppression is “passive”—too many losses and too much pain to sell, rather than optimism about the market’s future.

Short-term Holders as Hidden Risks

Particularly noteworthy is the status of short-term holders. According to CryptoQuant analysis, the realized price (average cost basis) of short-term holders is higher than the current price, indicating that investors who entered within the last six months are, on average, at a loss. When prices reach $100,000, these holders may start selling, creating new downward pressure.

In other words, short-term holders are like a “hidden bomb”; when the price breaks through a key level, their forced selling could reverse the market trend.

Significant Market Divergence

It is worth noting that not all market participants agree with Ki Young Ju’s conservative outlook. The spot Bitcoin ETF is signaling positivity. Data from Farside Investors shows that in the first three trading days of 2026, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw approximately $925.3 million in net inflows, indicating some institutional funds are re-entering the market.

At the same time, venture capitalist Tim Draper believes 2026 will be a pivotal year for Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption, and Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, also states that Bitcoin could break its traditional four-year cycle and hit a new all-time high again in 2026. These voices contrast with Ki Young Ju’s sideways market prediction.

Options Market’s Optimistic Outlook

The options market also reflects this divergence. According to the latest data, open interest in options is concentrated on the $100,000 strike price expiring in January, with call options’ notional value more than twice that of put options. This indicates that many are betting on BTC reaching $100,000, but optimism in the options market does not necessarily reflect the true demand in the spot market.

Summary

Bitcoin is likely to remain volatile in the short term, which has become a market consensus. The key debate is whether this volatility is a necessary step toward $100,000 or the beginning of a long-term sideways trend. Ki Young Ju’s warning deserves attention because capital depletion is indeed a real reflection of current market conditions. However, net inflows into spot ETFs and some institutional optimism also remind us that the market has not lost all momentum.

In the short term, a defensive approach is wise, especially being cautious of potential sell-offs from short-term holders looking to cut losses. In the medium to long term, changes in capital flows and macroeconomic developments will be the fundamental factors determining Bitcoin’s trajectory. Investors should remain patient amid these uncertainties and closely monitor shifts in capital movement.