Is the spring market about to start again? This is a common discussion every year around this time. Based on over a decade of experience, spring rallies often do not disappoint—if you missed out, you should really think about why.

Why is it so easy for the market to move in spring? Simply put, three words: money, expectations, and sentiment.

Money is the most important. Liquidity at the beginning of the year is usually good, and after the Spring Festival, market funds start to become more active. The "red start" at the beginning of the year boosts confidence; once funds enter the market, short-term gains naturally follow. A rally without sufficient capital accumulation cannot go far—this is the fundamental logic.

Next is expectations. Spring is the peak season for policy discussions, especially when major meetings are held intensively. Investors have a long-standing habit—placing bets in advance. At this time, the market particularly favors "stories." As long as the story is well told and optimism rises, the market naturally emerges.

Additionally, there is a "data vacuum" period. Early in the year, companies release fewer financial reports, and economic data is less dense, so the market doesn't have to worry about being proven wrong by actual data. In this environment, imagination is amplified infinitely, and the gains tend to be more "reckless."

In terms of timing, spring rallies usually last 2 to 3 months. The earliest start could be in December, but the highest probability is in January. This year, market sentiment is indeed quite active, and the 2025 market itself is quite strong. Even if there are occasional pullbacks, the overall mood remains optimistic. Large funds and retail investors are all preparing for this spring rally, waiting for another round of "carnival."