Recently, I came across some seemingly unbelievable event contracts on prediction markets. I started wondering, who is really going against "common sense"? Why do some people dare to bet on these "impossible" events?

Let's not rush to mock these people. You should know that when someone puts real money into predicting an event, they usually think it through carefully. The rules of prediction markets are like that—you’re betting on probabilities, not luck. So those users betting Yes on absurd events might actually have their own logic.

After some thought, I’ve categorized the providers of counterparty liquidity into a few types.

**The lottery players are the first type.** Their idea is straightforward—regardless of whether the event itself is reliable, they focus on the odds. The thrill of betting big with small amounts is what they enjoy. The more outrageous the odds, the more excited they get. Probability theory doesn’t matter to them; they just treat their bets like buying lottery tickets.

This actually reflects an interesting phenomenon: even in seemingly rational prediction markets, people's decision-making logic varies widely. Some are data enthusiasts, others are purely seeking excitement. Prediction markets act like a mirror, revealing the true thoughts of all participants.