The Federal Reserve has been making quite a fuss lately. Internal disputes over interest rate cuts are the most intense in nearly six years.
How much to cut and when—officials are completely at odds. One group advocates for a total cut of over 100 basis points this year, believing that the current 3.5%-3.75% rate is suppressing economic growth; another group refuses to loosen their stance, insisting on a maximum of 25 basis points per cut, maintaining a firm defensive line. There is almost no room for negotiation between the two sides.
This is not an ideological debate; frankly, it’s a struggle over real interests.
The proponent of significant rate cuts has presented data: consumer growth is slowing down, manufacturing is wavering near the recession threshold. More painfully, the US’s $38 trillion debt means that just interest payments alone amount to $1.3 trillion annually. Doing the math—if they cut rates by 100 basis points at once, they could save $400 billion, which would help ease fiscal difficulties and give the economy and midterm elections some breathing room.
But those advocating caution also have reasons to worry: will inflation make a comeback? Will the costs of previous tightening policies be all for nothing? Looking at the voting, three out of twelve committee members have already voted against. Such a split is itself an unusual signal.
On the crypto market side, the signs have long been detected.
BTC has been oscillating around the $90,000 mark, with market sentiment swinging between anticipation and hesitation. History shows that each rate cut cycle often acts as a catalyst for increased liquidity in crypto assets.
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MetaMisfit
· 01-11 03:02
Fed infighting? To put it nicely, it's policy making; to put it bluntly, it's a gamble on who can win the first round. Whether to cut rates or not, in the end, it all depends on who has the bigger chips. Anyway, BTC is already stirring around the 90,000 mark, and it will move sooner or later.
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SatoshiChallenger
· 01-10 23:05
Ironically, the 38 trillion debt has interest payments of 1.3 trillion in just one year. No matter how perfect the calculations are, it doesn't change one fact: lowering interest rates is a gamble that inflation won't return. What if the gamble is lost? The lessons of history are right there.
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GateUser-75ee51e7
· 01-10 12:05
The Fed's internal conflict is essentially each side betting on a different future... lowering interest rates by 100 basis points vs. sticking to 25 basis points, the gap is huge. Speaking of which, 38 trillion in debt, with just interest payments of 1.3 trillion a year, if I were them, I'd want to cut too, but I really don't dare to gamble on inflation... BTC has been fluctuating around the 90,000 level, actually just waiting for this official battle to have a result. When liquidity comes in, that's when the real takeoff will happen.
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PancakeFlippa
· 01-08 04:49
The Federal Reserve folks are really a tangled mess, with dovish and hawkish factions clashing, it feels like a big showdown is imminent.
Speaking of which, with debt so terrifying, we really can't hold on any longer. Can a 100 basis point cut save 400 billion? Oh my, that number is a bit frightening.
BTC now seems to be waiting for a signal. Once the rate cut happens, it will probably be another frenzy, history just keeps repeating itself.
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WhaleStalker
· 01-08 04:48
Federal Reserve infighting, in simple terms, is paving the way for a flood of liquidity. BTC is about to take off.
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GmGnSleeper
· 01-08 04:42
The Fed internal conflicts are so intense, it really shows how deep the water is. 100bp vs 25bp, these two factions are not just a little different... With such a large debt, the pressure to cut rates is real, but there's also fear of inflation. It's normal for BTC to hover around 90,000; let's just wait and see how the Fed finally chooses.
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RamenDeFiSurvivor
· 01-08 04:41
The Federal Reserve is taking aggressive actions, and our BTC is suffering along... The key is that no one knows how much they'll actually cut in the end. There's reason to bet on 100bp or 25bp, and that's what hurts the most.
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SigmaBrain
· 01-08 04:40
The Fed's internal conflicts are so intense, it really shows there's no way out. The 38 trillion debt is suffocating, and cutting interest rates is just patching the wall with the wall.
The Federal Reserve has been making quite a fuss lately. Internal disputes over interest rate cuts are the most intense in nearly six years.
How much to cut and when—officials are completely at odds. One group advocates for a total cut of over 100 basis points this year, believing that the current 3.5%-3.75% rate is suppressing economic growth; another group refuses to loosen their stance, insisting on a maximum of 25 basis points per cut, maintaining a firm defensive line. There is almost no room for negotiation between the two sides.
This is not an ideological debate; frankly, it’s a struggle over real interests.
The proponent of significant rate cuts has presented data: consumer growth is slowing down, manufacturing is wavering near the recession threshold. More painfully, the US’s $38 trillion debt means that just interest payments alone amount to $1.3 trillion annually. Doing the math—if they cut rates by 100 basis points at once, they could save $400 billion, which would help ease fiscal difficulties and give the economy and midterm elections some breathing room.
But those advocating caution also have reasons to worry: will inflation make a comeback? Will the costs of previous tightening policies be all for nothing? Looking at the voting, three out of twelve committee members have already voted against. Such a split is itself an unusual signal.
On the crypto market side, the signs have long been detected.
BTC has been oscillating around the $90,000 mark, with market sentiment swinging between anticipation and hesitation. History shows that each rate cut cycle often acts as a catalyst for increased liquidity in crypto assets.