Why do all the big investors avoid macro forecasting? Honestly, it’s not because they’re timid or lack ability, but because this thing simply can’t be done precisely in an objective manner.

Look at their logic: the macro system itself is extremely complex—interest rates, inflation, policies—these variables are intertwined, and they also have to guard against black swan events like geopolitical conflicts and natural disasters that can come out of nowhere. This coupling relationship makes it fundamentally impossible to predict market trends accurately, and it has nothing to do with your capability.

Using historical data is the most convincing approach. How accurate are the long-term macro forecasts of top economists and investment analysts? They’re roughly as reliable as guesswork—no one has ever been able to master this through skill upgrades. Since macro is objectively a black box, why invest a lot of effort into it? Instead, it’s better to focus on understanding the fundamentals of companies—these can be gradually understood through research, and the risks are more controllable. This is the so-called circle of competence principle. It sounds simple, but it’s actually based on a rational understanding of the market’s essence.